A primary climate change signal in the central Arctic is the melting of sea ice. This is dependent on the interplay between the atmosphere and the sea ice, which is critically dependent on the exchange of momentum, heat and moisture at the surface. In assessing the realism of climate change scenarios it is vital to know the quality by which these exchanges are modelled in climate simulations. Six state-of-the-art regional-climate models are run for one year in the western Arctic, on a common domain that encompasses the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment ice-drift track. Surface variables, surface fluxes and the vertical structure of the lower troposphere are evaluated using data from the SHEBA experiment. All the models are driven by the same lateral boundary conditions, sea-ice fraction and sea and sea-ice surface temperatures. Surface pressure, near-surface air temperature, specific humidity and wind speed agree well with observations, with a falling degree of accuracy in that order. Wind speeds have systematic biases in some models, by as much as a few metres per second. The surface radiation fluxes are also surprisingly accurate, given the complexity of the problem. The turbulent momentum flux is acceptable, on average, in most models, but the turbulent heat fluxes are, however, mostly unreliable. Their correlation with observed fluxes is, in principle, insignificant, and they accumulate over a year to values an order of magnitude larger than observed. Typical instantaneous errors are easily of the same order of magnitude as the observed net atmospheric heat flux. In the light of the sensitivity of the atmosphere-ice interaction to errors in these fluxes, the ice-melt in climate change scenarios must be viewed with considerable caution.

Abstract. This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). In Part 1, we described the sensitivity experiments and accompanying evaluation done to arrive at the final mesoscale model setup used to produce the mesoscale wind atlas. In this paper, Part 2, we document how we made the final wind atlas product, covering both the production of the mesoscale climatology generated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the microscale climatology generated with the Wind Atlas Analysis and Applications Program (WAsP). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the downscaling using WAsP. We show the main results from the final wind atlas and present a comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe. The added value of the WRF and WAsP downscaling of wind climatologies is evaluated relative to the performance of the driving ERA5 reanalysis and shows that the WRF downscaling reduces the mean wind speed bias and spread relative to that of ERA5 from -1.50±1.30 to 0.02±0.78 m s−1. The WAsP downscaling has an added positive impact relative to that of the WRF model in simple terrain. In complex terrain, where the assumptions of the linearized flow model break down, both the mean bias and spread in wind speed are worse than those from the raw mesoscale results.

Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic.

Numerical simulation of a long bora episode is presented and compared with measurements. The goal is to resolve the quasi-periodic oscillations of the bora gusts, i.e. the pulsations. The model reproduced well the approximately 7 min periodicity of pulsations and the upstream structure of the atmosphere, and can thus be used for the detailed dynamical considerations.The results of previous studies are confirmed, as well as the hypotheses on the mechanisms responsible for the disappearance of pulsations. Specifically, it is shown that the upper-tropospheric jet induces strong positive shear throughout the troposphere and consequently the local nonlinearity of the incoming flow weakens. Henceforth, the low-level wave breaking is diminished and so the pulsations cease. From the three previously proposed generating mechanisms of pulsations, the results obtained point to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability as the primary mechanism in this case.Additionally, it seems that the situations with absence of pulsations may be related to the formation of the mountainwave-induced rotor.

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997–September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables

A combination of turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations and observations are used to examine the influence of swell amplitude and swell propagation angle on surface drag. Based on the analysis a new surface roughness parameterization with nonequilibrium wave effects is proposed. The surface roughness accounts for swell amplitude and wavelength and its relative motion with respect to the mean wind direction. The proposed parameterization is tested in uncoupled three-dimensional Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations at grid sizes near 1 km where we explore potential implications of our modifications for two-way coupled atmosphere–wave models. Wind–wave misalignment likely explains the large scatter in observed nondimensional surface roughness under swell-dominated conditions. Andreas et al.’s relationship between friction velocity and the 10-m wind speed under predicts the increased drag produced by misaligned winds and waves. Incorporating wave-state (speed and direction) influences in parameterizations improves predictive skill. In a broad sense, these results suggest that one needs information on winds and wave state to upscale buoy measurements.

This paper introduces a method for identifying icing events using a physical icing model, driven by atmospheric data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and applies it to a wind park in Sweden. Observed wind park icing events were identified by deviation from an idealized power curve and observed temperature. The events were modeled using a physical icing model with equations for both accretion and ablation mechanisms (iceBlade). The accretion model is based on the Makkonen model but was modified to make it applicable to the blades of a wind turbine rather than a static structure, and the ablation model is newly developed. The results from iceBlade are shown to outperform a 1-day persistence model and standard cylinder model in determining the times when any turbine in the wind park is being impacted by icing. The icing model was evaluated using inputs from simulations using nine different WRF physics parameterization combinations. The combination of the Thompson microphysics parameterization and version 2 of the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino PBL scheme was shown to perform best at this location. The distribution of cloud mass into the appropriate hydrometeor classes was found to be very important for forecasting the correct icing period. One concern with the iceBlade approach was the relatively high false alarm rates at the end of icing events due to the ice not being removed rapidly enough.

Concentrations of ozone exceeding regulatory standards are regularly observed along the coasts of New Hampshire and Maine in summer. These events are primarily caused by the transport of pollutants from urban areas in Massachusetts and farther south and west. Pollutant transport is most efficient over the ocean. The coastline makes transport processes complex because it makes the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer complex. During pollution episodes, the air over land in daytime is warmer than the sea surface, so air transported from land over water becomes statically stable and the formerly well-mixed boundary layer separates into possibly several layers, each transported in a different direction. This study examines several of the atmospheric boundary layer processes involved in pollutant transport. A three-dimensional model [the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)] run on grids of 2.5 and 7.5 km is used to examine the winds, thermodynamic structure, and structure of tracer plumes emitted from Boston, Massachusetts, and New York City, New York, in two different real cases—one dominated by large-scale transport (22–23 July 2002) and one with important mesoscale effects (11–14 August 2002). The model simulations are compared with measurements taken during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study. The model simulates the basic structure of the two different episodes well. The boundary layer stability over the cold water is weaker in the model than in reality. The tracer allows for easy visualization of the pollutant transport.