Forecast of Icing Events at a Wind Farm in Sweden

Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik; Žagar, Mark

doi:10.1175/jamc-d-13-09.1

Cited by 47 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…Freezing rain is a severe disastrous weather, with the relatively lower frequency of occurrence. Freezing rain in mountainous area can seriously affect the normal operation of various field facilities, such as transmission line towers, telecommunication towers, and wind driven generators, and even cause the damage and collapse of these facilities [1][2][3]. Freezing rain is the natural hazard causing the accidents of 66 kV and the above voltage-level transmission lines, whose number is second to that of lightning hazard.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Characteristics and Determination Method for Freezing Rain in China

Zhou

Yanyu²,

Gao³

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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The climatic characteristics and temperature profiles of freezing rain in China are analyzed based on the observational data at 650 stations in China from 2000 to 2015. The freezing rain of China is generally in stripe-shape spatial distribution. The stations with freezing rain over 100 station-hours are mainly concentrated at the southeast areas of Southwest China and high-elevation mountainous areas of Eastern China. There are mainly two types of freezing rain temperature profiles, including single-warmlayer profile and double-warm-layer profile. The freezing rain profiles of mountainous area and urban area in Southwest China are similar to each other, and the freezing rain in Central and East China shares the similar single-warm-layer profile. The profiles in South China show the characteristics of freezing rain's profile in both Southwest China and Central/East China as the position of stations. PA of freezing rain's profiles is negatively correlated with NA, with correlation coefficients ranging from −0.36 to −0.70. The configuration of weak cold/warm layer (both smaller than 150 ∘ C⋅hPa) is one of major reasons causing frequent freezing rain at mountainous areas of Southwest China. The more obvious the change of NA with the variations of PA is, the more the freezing rain is likely to occur.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic Characteristics and Determination Method for Freezing Rain in China

Zhou

Yanyu²,

Gao³

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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“…The calculation of the forecast error as the deviation between forecasted and true value uses an observation as replacement 15 for the truth. Thus, the observational error needs to be taken into account in the calculation of the error terms.…”

Section: Verification Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the amount of forecasted water content was still too low to generate any notable buildup by the icing model. In Davis et al (2014) it was shown using a similar model that the resulting ice load was highly sensitive to a variation of the ingoing median volume droplet size of the water droplets, suggesting that this is an uncertain part of the icing model. Here, the droplet size is calculated from the liquid water content before being used in the icing model.…”

Section: Site Amentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: A case study

Söderman¹,

Körnich²,

Olsson³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.The problem of icing on wind turbines in cold climates is addressed using probabilistic forecasting to improve next-day forecasts of icing and related production losses. A case study of probabilistic forecasts was generated for a two-week period.Uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are represented with an ensemble forecasting system, while uncertainties in the spatial representation are included with a neighbourhood method. Using probabilistic forecasting instead of one single 5 forecast was shown to improve the forecast skill of the ice-related production loss forecasts and hence the icing forecasts.The spread of the multiple forecasts can be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and of the likelihood for icing and severe production losses. Best results, both in terms of forecast skill and forecasted uncertainty, were achieved using both the ensemble forecast and the neighbourhood method combined. This demonstrates that the application of probabilistic forecasting for wind power in cold climate can be valuable when planning next-day energy production, in the usage of de-icing systems, 10 and for site safety.

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“…Numerical simulation is directly used to study incloud icing impacts on wind plant power loss in recent years (Byrkjedal 2012a,b;Soderberg and Baltscheffsky 2012;Bernstein et al 2012;Karlsson et al 2013;Turkia et al 2013;Davis et al 2014). Turkia et al (2013) simulate ice accretion on blades and wind turbine power loss.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupled Atmospheric–Ice Load Model for Evaluation of Wind Plant Power Loss

Yang

Choisnard

et al. 2015

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Icing is a weather phenomenon that is typical of cold climates. It impacts human activities through ice accretion on tower structures, transmission lines, and the blades of wind turbines. Icing on turbine blades, in particular, results in wind turbine performance degradation and/or safety shutdowns. The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of using a coupled atmospheric and ice load model to simulate icing start-up, duration, and amount while also quantitatively evaluating power loss in wind plants related to icing events and mechanisms. Eight of 27 icing episodes identified for a wind plant in the Gaspé region of Québec (Canada) during the period 2008-10 were simulated using a mesoscale model (the Global Environmental Multiscale Limited-Area Model, or GEM-LAM). The simulations were verified using near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which compared well to in situ observations. Simulated wind speed, precipitation, cloud liquid water content, and median volume diameter of the droplets were used to drive ice load models to simulate the total ice load on a cylindrical structure. The three ice load models accounted for freezing rain, wet snow, and in-cloud icing, respectively, and in all three cases a sink term was added to account for melting due to radiation. The start-up and duration of ice were well captured by the coupled model, and a positive correlation was found between icing episodes and wind power reduction. This study demonstrates the improvements of the icing forecasts by using three ice load models, and provides a framework for both qualitative and quantitative evaluation of icing impact on wind turbine operations.

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Forecast of Icing Events at a Wind Farm in Sweden

Cited by 47 publications

References 29 publications

Climatic Characteristics and Determination Method for Freezing Rain in China

Climatic Characteristics and Determination Method for Freezing Rain in China

Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates: A case study

Coupled Atmospheric–Ice Load Model for Evaluation of Wind Plant Power Loss

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