Quasi-periodicities in annual rainfall totals over southern Africa have been identified; in particular, an approximately 18-year cycle may be related to interdecadal variability in sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific and central Indian Oceans. A 10-year cycle along the south coast is related to variability in standing wave 3. Atmospheric anomalies associated with wet and dry years can be related to changes in the frequency, intensity and persistence of important rainfall-producing weather systems and highlight the significance of the strength of the continental heat low and the preferred locations and amplitudes of the westerly troughs. El Niño Southern Oscillation events and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Indian and South Atlantic Oceans can influence both the tropical and the temperate atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes over the subcontinent and thus are significant influences on rainfall variability. Evidence for long-term climatic change is not as definitive as in the Sahel, although there are indications of desiccation in some areas since the late-1970s. Increases in temperatures are of approximately the same magnitude as the hemispheric trends and may be attributable to the enhanced greenhouse effect.

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[1] Thirty-five meteorological stations encompassing the Caribbean region (Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados) were analyzed over the time interval 1951-1981 to assess regional precipitation patterns and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Application of factor analysis to these series revealed the existence of four geographically distinct precipitation regions, (C1) western Cuba and northwestern Bahamas, (C2) Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas, (C3) Dominican Republic and northwestern Puerto Rico, and (C4) eastern Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados. This regionalization is related to different annual cycles and interannual fluctuations of rainfall. The annual cycle is more unimodal and largest in the northwest Caribbean (C1) and becomes increasingly bimodal toward lower latitudes (C4) as expected. Year-to-year variations of precipitation are compared with two well-known climatic indices. The ENSO relationship, represented by Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures (SST), is positive and stable at all lags, but tends to reverse over the SE Caribbean (C4) in late summer. The NAO influence is weak and seasonally dependent. Early summer rainfall in the northwest Caribbean (C1) increases under El Niño conditions. Clusters 2 and 3 are less influenced by the global predictors and more regional in character.

Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1, 2). This trend has been attributed to both anthropogenically induced climate change and natural variability, but the primary cause remains uncertain. Changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the past can provide insights into the factors that influence hurricane activity, but reliable observations of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic only cover the past few decades. Here we construct a record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years using proxy records of vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature (the main controls on the formation of major hurricanes in this region) from corals and a marine sediment core. The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, the phase of enhanced hurricane activity since 1995 is not unusual compared to other periods of high hurricane activity in the record and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea surface temperature. Comparison of the record with a reconstruction of vertical wind shear indicates that variability in this parameter primarily controlled the frequency of major hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 270 years, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of vertical wind shear will have a significant influence on future hurricane activity.

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03°C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of −0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

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The observed and projected changes in the climate of southern Africa in the period 1900-2100 were analysed. Ten observed, reanalysed and model-simulated climate data sets were explored for changes in surface air temperature, rainfall, air pressure, winds, ocean currents and sea surface height. The analysis of spatial and temporal climate trends from historical observations provided a context to assess two coupled model simulations (IPSL, MIROC) based on the A1B emission scenario. Temperatures in the satellite era exhibited upward trends greater than +0.4 °C/year in the MIROC and IPSL A1B model simulations; between +0.02 °C/year and +0.03 °C/year in NCDC, HADCRU, CFS-R and NCEPe data sets; +0.01 °C/year in NCEPr and GHCN observations; and +0.002 °C/year in the ECMWF data set. Although rainfall trends in the satellite era were minimal in many data sets because of drought in the early 1980s, there was a significant downtrend in the IPSL simulation of-0.013 mm/day per year. When averaging the longer data sets together over the 20th century, the southern African rainfall trend was-0.003 mm/day per year. Other key features of the analyses include a poleward drift of the subtropical anticyclones and a +1.5 mm/year rise in sea surface height along the coast.

Interannual fluctuations of monsoons around Africa and the stability of associations with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and African rainfall are studied. The statistical analysis employs sea surface temperature (SST), surface and upper winds, and surface pressure averaged over key monsoon areas of the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The time series span the period 1958–1998, and wavelet analysis is applied to localize relationships in time as well as in frequency and enable us to examine how the amplitude and time delay at interannual scales varies through the record. Comparisons are made with Niño3 SST and other known ENSO signals in the African hemisphere. It is found that upper zonal winds over the tropical Atlantic are an integral part of the global ENSO. Zonal winds are associated with SST changes in the equatorial east Atlantic, which are antiphase to those in the west‐central Indian Ocean. A composite analysis of warm and cool events in the Indian Ocean reveals that evaporation, radiative fluxes, and wind curl interact constructively. Anticyclonic curl (depression of isotherms) leads warm events, while cool events may initiate from oceanic advection and are sustained by evaporative fluxes. Rainfall fluctuations across Africa are analyzed, and three coherent areas are identified: West (Sahel‐Guinea), Southern (Kalahari‐Zambezi), and East (Kenya‐Tanzania). Multivariate regression algorithms are fitted to the continuous filtered rainfall series over the period 1958–1988. Using three monsoon indices in a multivariate model, about 40% of the variance is explained at zero lag. An influential variable for most African rainfall areas is the zonal wind over the tropical Atlantic. The north‐south SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic modulates rainfall in West Africa as expected. At 6 month lead, surface pressure in the north Indian Ocean is a key determinant for West African climate. For southern African rainfall, SST in the southwest Indian Ocean and monsoon indices in the west‐central Indian Ocean play significant roles. East African rainfall fluctuations are linked with zonal winds in the east Indian Ocean. The findings address current Climate Variability and Predictability program (CLIVAR) priorities for understanding how continental climate interacts with ENSO and other regional modes of variability.