Annually resolved coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records from southwestern Puerto Rico are used to investigate Caribbean climate variability between 1751 and 2004 C.E. Mean surface ocean temperatures in this region have increased steadily by about 2°C since the year 1751, with Sr/Ca data indicating 2.1 ± 0.8°C and δ18O data indicating 2.7 ± 0.5°C. Coral geochemical records from across the tropics demonstrate that regional variability is important for understanding climate variations at centennial time scales. A strong multidecadal salinity signal in the oxygen isotope data correlates with observed multidecadal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere. Instrumental wind and precipitation data indicate that the most recent coral isotopic variations are caused by expansion and contraction of the steep regional salinity gradient, forced by trade wind anomalies through meridional Ekman transport. The timing of the fluctuations suggests that the multidecadal‐scale wind and surface circulation anomalies might play a role in Atlantic temperature variability and meridional overturning circulation, but further work is needed to confirm this suggestion.

Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1, 2). This trend has been attributed to both anthropogenically induced climate change and natural variability, but the primary cause remains uncertain. Changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the past can provide insights into the factors that influence hurricane activity, but reliable observations of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic only cover the past few decades. Here we construct a record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years using proxy records of vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature (the main controls on the formation of major hurricanes in this region) from corals and a marine sediment core. The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, the phase of enhanced hurricane activity since 1995 is not unusual compared to other periods of high hurricane activity in the record and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea surface temperature. Comparison of the record with a reconstruction of vertical wind shear indicates that variability in this parameter primarily controlled the frequency of major hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 270 years, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of vertical wind shear will have a significant influence on future hurricane activity.

Abstract. We present the first detailed and rigorous comparison of six different computational techniques used to reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SST) from planktonic foraminifer census data. These include the Imbrie-Kipp transfer functions (IKTF), the modem analog technique (MAT), the modem analog technique with similarity index (SIMMAX), the revised analog method (RAM), and, for the first time, a set of back propagation artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a large faunal data set, including a modification where geographical information was added among the input variables (ANND). By training the techniques on an identical database, we were able to explore the differences in SST reconstructions resulting solely from the use of different mathematical methods. The comparison indicates that while the IKTF technique consistently shows the worst performance, ANN and RAM perform slightly better than MAT and that the inclusion of the geographical information into the training database (SIMMAX and ANND) further improves the accuracy of modem SST estimates. However, when applied to an independent validation data set and an additional fossil data set, the results did not conform to this ranking. The largest differences in the reconstructed SST values occurred between groups of techniques with different approaches to SST reconstruction; that is, ANN and ANND produced SST reconstructions significantly different from those produced by RAM, SIMMAX, and MAT. The application of the various techniques to the validation data set, which allowed comparison of SST reconstructions with instrumental records, suggests that artificial neural networks might provide better paleo-SST estimates than the other techniques. IntroductionOne of the most remarkable consequences of Charles Lyell's uniformitarian principle for the field of paleoceanography has been the opportunity to use the relationship between the distribution of modem faunas and floras and present-day physical conditions in the ocean to reconstruct climatic variations in the Quaternary period. In addition, if this relationship were expressed in the form of a mathematical formula, past climatic variations could be quantified in standard physical scales and units. This appealing prospect was discovered early in paleoceanographical studies, and quantitative reconstruction of Quaternary climate change by means of fossil faunas has become a standard and routinely applied procedure.Some The third approach, using artificial neural networks (ANN), a branch of artificial intelligence, relies on the sole assumption that there, indeed, is a relationship between the distribution of modem faunas and the physical properties of the environment. ANNs have the ability to overcome problems of fuzzy and nonlinear relationships between sets of input and output variables. This computer-intensive approach is based on an algorithm that has the ability of autonomous "learning" of a relationship between two groups of numbers [14/assetman, 1989; Beale and Jackson, 1990]. Once trained, the ne...

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The Gulf of Bothnia hosted a variety of palaeo‐glaciodynamic environments throughout the growth and decay of the last Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, from the main ice‐sheet divide to a major corridor of marine‐ and lacustrine‐based deglaciation. Ice streaming through the Bothnian and Baltic basins has been widely assumed, and the damming and drainage of the huge proglacial Baltic Ice Lake has been implicated in major regional and hemispheric climate changes. However, the dynamics of palaeo‐ice flow and retreat in this large marine sector have until now been inferred only indirectly, from terrestrial, peripheral evidence. Recent acquisition of high‐resolution multibeam bathymetry opens these basins up, for the first time, to direct investigation of their glacial footprint and palaeo‐ice sheet behaviour. Here we report on a rich glacial landform record: in particular, a palaeo‐ice stream pathway, abundant traces of high subglacial meltwater volumes, and widespread basal crevasse squeeze ridges. The Bothnian Sea ice stream is a narrow flow corridor that was directed southward through the basin to a terminal zone in the south‐central Bothnian Sea. It was activated after initial margin retreat across the Åland sill and into the Bothnian basin, and the exclusive association of the ice‐stream pathway with crevasse squeeze ridges leads us to interpret a short‐lived stream event, under high extension, followed by rapid crevasse‐triggered break‐up. We link this event with a c. 150‐year ice‐rafted debris signal in peripheral varved records, at c. 10.67 cal. ka BP. Furthermore, the extensive glacifluvial system throughout the Bothnian Sea calls for considerable input of surface meltwater. We interpret strongly atmospherically driven retreat of this marine‐based ice‐sheet sector.

In this study, a third-generation wave model is used to examine the wave power resource for the Baltic Sea region at an unprecedented one-kilometer-scale resolution for the years 1998 to 2013. Special focus is given to the evaluation and description of wave field characteristics for the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone (SEEZ). It is carried out to provide a more detailed assessment of the potential of waves as a renewable energy resource for the region. The wave energy potential is largely controlled by the distance from the coast and the fetch associated with the prevailing dominant wave direction. The ice cover is also shown to significantly influence the wave power resource, especially in the most northern basins of the SEEZ. For the areas in focus here, the potential annual average wave energy flux reaches 45 MWh/m/year in the two sub-basins with the highest wave energies, but local variations are up to 65 MWh/m/year. The assessment provides the basis for a further detailed identification of potential sites for wave energy converters. An outlook is given for additional aspects studied within a broad multi-disciplinary project to assess the conditions for offshore wave energy conversion within the SEEZ.

We present a record of climate variability spanning the last 2000 years obtained from sediment cores retrieved south and west of Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The records include lithological and mineral magnetic parameters as well as planktonic foraminifer data. For chronostratigraphic control, AMS 14C and 210Pb/137Cs measurements were made. Harmonic analysis of the values of the mineral magnetic parameters “saturation isothermal remanent magnetization” (SIRM), “anhysteric remanent magnetization divided by magnetic susceptibility” (ARM/χ), and “saturation isothermal remanent magnetization divided by magnetic susceptibility” (SIRM/χ) indicate the existence of a ∼200-year-long climate cycle in the northeastern Caribbean during the last 2000 years. The detected cycle may reflect changes in precipitation patterns over the low-latitude North Atlantic Ocean and surrounding continental areas. Higher organic carbon contents appear in the sediments both off southern and western Puerto Rico before and at the onset of the Little Ice Age around A.D. 1300 to 1500. This is indicative of increased run off and/or enhanced surface productivity possibly associated with more intense wind-induced upwelling. Major changes in the geochemical and mineral magnetic records around A.D. 850–1000 concur with changes in other records from the Caribbean and North African regions indicating a shift toward a more humid climate over the low-latitude North Atlantic.

Late-and postglacial geological evolution of the southern Kattegat connection to the Great Belt was investigated from high-resolution seismic data and radiocarbon-dated sediment cores in order to elucidate the Ancylus Lake drainage/Littorina Sea transgression. It was found that glacial deposits form the acoustic basement and are covered by Lateglacial (LG) marine sediments and postglacial (PG; Holocene) material. The LG deposits form a highstand systems tract, whereas the PG deposits cover a full depositional sequence, consisting of a lowstand systems tract (PG I), transgressive systems tract (PG II; subdivided into three parasequences) and finally a highstand systems tract (PG III). PG I sand deposits (11.7-10.8 cal. ka BP) are found in a major western channel and in a secondary eastern channel. PG II (10.8-9.8 cal. ka BP) consists of estuarine and coastal deposits linked to an estuary located at the mouth of the channels. Both channels drained fresh water from south to north. The PG III, that is younger than 9.8 cal. ka BP, represents the threshold marine flooding at the southeastern branch of the palaeo-Great Belt channel. At 9.3 cal. ka BP, fully marine conditions were established, shortly before the flooding of the threshold to the northern part of the Great Belt. These early Holocene spits and sand bars are preserved as features on the present seabed, probably as a result of the rapid sea-level rise that led to back-stepping of the early Holocene palaeo-coast system. This study shows no evidence of major erosion or delta deposition linked to the emptying of the Ancylus Lake, which suggests that continuous water flow from the south characterized the area, without any major drainage event of the Ancylus Lake impacting the southwestern Kattegat.