Our decisions are guided by outcomes that are associated with decisions made in the past. However, the amount of influence each past outcome has on our next decision remains unclear. To ensure optimal decision-making, the weight given to decision outcomes should reflect their salience in predicting future outcomes, and this salience should be modulated by the volatility of the reward environment. We show that human subjects assess volatility in an optimal manner and adjust decision-making accordingly. This optimal estimate of volatility is reflected in the fMRI signal in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) when each trial outcome is observed. When a new piece of information is witnessed, activity levels reflect its salience for predicting future outcomes. Furthermore, variations in this ACC signal across the population predict variations in subject learning rates. Our results provide a formal account of how we weigh our different experiences in guiding our future actions.

During decision making, individuals are prone to rely on external cues such as expert advice when the outcome is not known. However, the electrophysiological correlates associated with outcome uncertainty and the use of expert advice are not completely understood. The feedback-related negativity (FRN), P3a, and P3b are event-related brain potentials (ERPs) linked to dissociable stages of feedback and attentional processing during decision making. Even though these ERPs are influenced by both reward-and punishment-related feedback, it remains unclear how extrinsic information during uncertainty modulates these brain potentials. In this study, the effects of advice cues on decision making were investigated in two separate experiments. In the first experiment, electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded in healthy volunteers during a decision-making task in which the participants received reward or punishment feedback preceded by novice, amateur, or expert advice. The results showed that the P3a component was significantly influenced by the subjective predictive value of an advice cue, whereas the FRN and P3b were unaffected by the advice cues. In the second, sham-controlled experiment, cathodal transcranial direct current stimulation (ctDCS) was administered in conjunction with EEG in order to explore the direct contributions of the frontal cortex to these brain potentials. Results showed no significant change in either advice-following behavior or decision times. However, ctDCS did decrease FRN amplitudes as compared to sham, with no effect on the P3a or P3b. Together, these findings suggest that advice information may act primarily on attention allocation during feedback processing, whereas the electrophysiological correlates of the detection and updating of internal prediction models are not affected.

Learning the value of options in an uncertain environment is central to optimal decision making. The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) has been implicated in using reinforcement information to control behavior. Here we demonstrate that the ACC's critical role in reinforcement-guided behavior is neither in detecting nor in correcting errors, but in guiding voluntary choices based on the history of actions and outcomes. ACC lesions did not impair the performance of monkeys (Macaca mulatta) immediately after errors, but made them unable to sustain rewarded responses in a reinforcement-guided choice task and to integrate risk and payoff in a dynamic foraging task. These data suggest that the ACC is essential for learning the value of actions.

No abstract