This paper describes the use of an agent‐based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM) and a Monte Carlo analysis to assess the effectiveness of emergency management interventions in terms of loss of life, taking into account uncertainties in the physical characteristics of the population at risk, represented by people's height and mass. The work considered Canvey Island as a case study, which is located in the Thames Estuary. The average ground level of the island is 1 m below the mean high tide level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation by a series of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the Great North Sea Flood that breached the defences and led to the deaths of 58 people. A number of emergency management interventions (e.g. safe havens and flood warnings) were considered to ascertain if the loss of life in 1953 could have been reduced. The LSM was found to be an effective tool to compare different emergency management measures to ensure that loss of life is minimised when an extreme flood event occurs.
This paper analyses some of the main processes that occur during a flash‐flood with a two‐dimensional (2D) model (InfoWorks RS with a 2D module). The data collated in the Valency River after an extreme rainfall event in the Boscastle area, in the north coast of Cornwall (UK) in August 2004, are used to analyse such processes. The paper focuses on blockage of structures, which clearly influences flow distribution and water levels in the floodplain and on changes in flow paths by collapse of some structures, which have a relatively local influence. Changes of channel dimensions due to geomorphological processes as scour and deposition are also studied, although their influence is reduced by the effect of bridge blockage. Understanding the processes that occur in the river during a flash‐flood contributes to the development of risk models to reduce vulnerability.
Detailed testing of a new two‐dimensional hydraulic modelling system is presented. The methodology consists of applying the hydraulic model to a set of theoretical tests, for which analytical solutions are known, and then comparing a model simulation with a real flood event. The water‐at‐rest test, three dam‐break tests and the Seiche test constitute the set of tests with analytic solutions. The flood event is the Boscastle 2004 flood, for which observed water levels are available. The model yields results that compare closely with the analytical solutions in all of the tests, except for the Seiche test. When applied to the real flood event, the simulated maximum levels are close to the observed levels. Comparisons with two similar commercial software packages show similar results between the models.
Abstract. In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed, releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 107 m3
of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed, the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risks posed by them in the future.
Abstract. In recent years the number of tailings dams failures has increased. On 25 January 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil suddenly failed releasing a mudflow over 10 m deep comprising some 10 million m3 of mining waste which killed between 270 and 320 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM), to estimate the risk to people downstream of the Brumadinho tailings dam and to assess if the number of fatalities could have been reduced if a warning had been received prior to or at time the dam failed. The LSM modelling indicates that even if a warning had been issued as the dam failed the number of fatalities could have been reduced. Agent-based modelling tools such as the LSM can help to inform and improve emergency plans for tailings dams, which will help to reduce the risk posed by them in the future.
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