Use of an agent‐based model and Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the effectiveness of emergency management interventions to reduce loss of life during extreme floods

Abstract

This paper describes the use of an agent‐based model, known as the Life Safety Model (LSM) and a Monte Carlo analysis to assess the effectiveness of emergency management interventions in terms of loss of life, taking into account uncertainties in the physical characteristics of the population at risk, represented by people's height and mass. The work considered Canvey Island as a case study, which is located in the Thames Estuary. The average ground level of the island is 1 m below the mean high tide level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation by a series of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the Great North Sea Flood that breached the defences and led to the deaths of 58 people. A number of emergency management interventions (e.g. safe havens and flood warnings) were considered to ascertain if the loss of life in 1953 could have been reduced. The LSM was found to be an effective tool to compare different emergency management measures to ensure that loss of life is minimised when an extreme flood event occurs.

Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models

“…In regards to flood risk management, agent-based models are being used for simulating the behavior of people in case of flooding. An example is the planning of evacuations [187][188][189], where pedestrians, cars, and crowding are considered. Another example is the assessment of flood risk management strategies under future climate changes [190].…”

Vulnerability and costs of adaptation strategies for housing subjected to flood risks: Application to La Guérinière France

“…However, the static method allows every building in a potentially flooded area to be ranked equally and to focus more on the vulnerability than the hazard. It offers the possibility of modelling the worst case scenario, which is the focus of emergency planning efforts [24].…”

“…Table 1 summarizes the classification of structural adaptation strategies found in the literature which could be applied to buildings [18][19][20]. Moreover, prevention and warning are also crucial to prevent fatalities [21][22][23][24]. In this way, this study considers protection, retreat and two accommodation strategies.…”

From flooding to finance: NHS ambulance‐assisted evacuations of care home residents in Norfolk and Suffolk, UK

“…Advances in the field of emergency evacuation/transport route planning have produced three approaches that can identify ‘optimal’ evacuation routes by incorporating flood risk mapping and modelling, and GIS‐assisted road network routing paths (Cabinet Office, ; Kim, George, & Shekhar, ; Shekhar et al, ). This includes simulation methods, which model the flow of evacuee traffic based on dynamic traveller behaviour and traffic conditions, however, these variables are uncertain (Pel, Bliemer, & Hoogendoorn, ); Heuristic methods, which are popular model routes based on shortest travel time and road capacity constraints, however, this requires extensive data and computational intensity for large area simulations (Di Mauro & Lumbroso, ; Kim et al, ; Lu, George, & Shekhar, ; Lu, Huang, & Shekhar, ; Lumbroso & Davison, ; Shekhar et al, ; Tagg, Kolen, Leenders, Chen, & Powell, ; Tuydes & Ziliaskopoulos, ); Linear programming methods, which model lowest‐cost (shortest distance) paths between facilities, although this causes traffic congestion (Cova & Johnson, ; Talarico, Meisel, & Sörensen, ; Yamada, ). In this instance, transportation routes are created between ambulance stations, care homes, and rest centres.…”