Most modeling and statistical approaches encourage simplicity, yet ecological processes are often complex, as they are influenced by numerous dynamic environmental and biological factors. Pacific salmon abundance has been highly variable over the last few decades and most forecasting models have proven inadequate, primarily because of a lack of understanding of the processes affecting variability in survival. Better methods and data for predicting the abundance of returning adults are therefore required to effectively manage the species. We combined 31 distinct indicators of the marine environment collected over an 11-year period into a multivariate analysis to summarize and predict adult spring Chinook salmon returns to the Columbia River in 2012. In addition to forecasts, this tool quantifies the strength of the relationship between various ecological indicators and salmon returns, allowing interpretation of ecosystem processes. The relative importance of indicators varied, but a few trends emerged. Adult returns of spring Chinook salmon were best described using indicators of bottom-up ecological processes such as composition and abundance of zooplankton and fish prey as well as measures of individual fish, such as growth and condition. Local indicators of temperature or coastal upwelling did not contribute as much as large-scale indicators of temperature variability, matching the spatial scale over which salmon spend the majority of their ocean residence. Results suggest that effective management of Pacific salmon requires multiple types of data and that no single indicator can represent the complex early-ocean ecology of salmon.

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Litz, M. N. C., Emmett, R. L., Bentley, P. J., Claiborne, A. M., and Barceló, C. Biotic and abiotic factors influencing forage fish and pelagic nekton community in the Columbia River plume (USA) throughout the upwelling season 1999–2009. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: . Large river plumes modify coastal environments and can impact production across multiple trophic levels. From 1999 to 2009, the assemblages of forage fish, predator fish, and other pelagic nekton were monitored in coastal waters associated with the Columbia River plume. Surveys were conducted at night to target vertically migrating species, and community structure evaluated to better understand ecological interactions. Distinct inshore and offshore communities were identified during spring and summer that were correlated with ocean temperature, salinity, plume volume, and upwelling intensity. Resident euryhaline forage fish species, such as smelts, anchovy, herring, market squid, juvenile salmon, and spiny dogfish, showed a high affinity for inshore habitat and the lower salinity plume during spring. Highly migratory species, such as sardine, piscivorous hake, sharks, and mackerels, were associated with warmer, saltier waters offshore, during strong upwelling periods in summer. Overall, our study of pelagic nekton revealed that temporal dynamics in abundance and community composition were associated with seasonal abiotic phenomenon, but not interannual, large-scale oceanographic processes. Forage fish assemblages differed seasonally and spatially from the assemblages of major piscivorous predators. This finding suggests a potential role of the plume as refuge for forage fish from predation by piscivorous fish in the northern California Current.

We examined variability in growth rate during the larval stage of northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) in response to physical and biological environmental factors in 2005 and 2006. The onset of spring upwelling was anomalously delayed by 2–3 months until mid‐July in 2005; in contrast, spring upwelling in 2006 began as a normal year in the northern California Current. Larval and early juvenile E. mordax were collected in August, September, and October off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Hatch dates ranged from May to September, with peaks in June and August in 2005 and a peak in July in 2006, based on the number of otolith daily increments. Back‐calculated body length‐at‐age in the June 2005 hatch cohort was significantly smaller than in the August 2005 cohort, which had comparable growth to the July 2006 cohort. Standardized otolith daily increment widths as a proxy for seasonal variability in somatic growth rates in 2005 were negative until late July and then changed to positive with intensification of upwelling. The standardized increment width was a positive function of biomass of chlorophyll a concentration, and neritic cold‐water and oceanic subarctic copepod species sampled biweekly off Newport, Oregon. Our results suggest that delayed upwelling in 2005 resulted in low food availability and, consequently, reduced E. mordax larval growth rate in early summer, but once upwelling began in July, high food availability enhanced larval growth rate to that typical of a normal upwelling year (e.g., 2006) in the northern California Current.

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Variation in prey quantity and quality can influence growth and survival of marine predators, including anadromous fish that migrate from freshwater systems. The objective of this study was to examine the energy dynamics of subyearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) following freshwater emigration. To address this objective, a population of Chinook salmon and their marine prey were repeatedly sampled from June to September over 2 years in coastal waters off Oregon and Washington. Subyearlings from the same population were also reared under laboratory conditions. Using a bioenergetics model evaluated in the laboratory, we found that growth rate variability in the field was associated more with differences in northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) consumption and less with variation in diet energy density or ocean temperature. Highest growth rates (2.43–3.22% body weight/day) occurred in months when anchovy biomass peaked, and the timing of peak anchovy biomass varied by year. Our results support a general pattern among subyearling Chinook salmon occurring from Alaska to California that feeding rates contribute most to growth rate variability during early marine residence, although dominant prey types can differ seasonally, annually, or by ecosystem. In the northern California Current, faster growth appears to be associated with the availability of age‐0 anchovy. Identifying factors that influence the seasonal development of the prey field and regulate prey quantity and quality will improve understanding of salmon growth and survival during early marine residence.

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