IntroductionUnderstanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted our health and safety is imperative. This study sought to examine the impact of COVID-19’s stay-at-home order on daily vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and MVCs in Connecticut.MethodsUsing an interrupted time series design, we analysed daily VMT and MVCs stratified by crash severity and number of vehicles involved from 1 January to 30 April 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. MVC data were collected from the Connecticut Crash Data Repository; daily VMT estimates were obtained from StreetLight Insight’s database. We used segmented Poisson regression models, controlling for daily temperature and daily precipitation.ResultsThe mean daily VMT significantly decreased 43% in the post stay-at-home period in 2020. While the mean daily counts of crashes decreased in 2020 after the stay-at-home order was enacted, several types of crash rates increased after accounting for the VMT reductions. Single vehicle crash rates significantly increased 2.29 times, and specifically single vehicle fatal crash rates significantly increased 4.10 times when comparing the pre-stay-at-home and post-stay-at-home periods.DiscussionDespite a decrease in the number of MVCs and VMT, the crash rate of single vehicles increased post stay-at-home order enactment in Connecticut after accounting for reductions in VMT.
Introduction
Recent research suggests that COVID-19 associated stay-at-home orders, or shelter-in-place orders, have impacted intra-and-interstate travel as well as motor vehicle crashes (crashes). We sought to further this research and to understand the impact of the stay-at-home order on crashes in the post order period in Connecticut.
Methods
We used a multiple-comparison group, interrupted time-series analysis design to compare crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per week in 2020 to the average of 2017–2019 from January 1-August 31. We stratified crash rate by severity and the number of vehicles involved. We modeled two interruption points reflecting the weeks Connecticut implemented (March 23rd, week 12) and rescinded (May 20th, week 20) its stay-at-home order.
Results
During the initial week of the stay-at-home order in Connecticut, there was an additional 28 single vehicle crashes compared to previous years (95% confidence interval (CI): [15.8, 36.8]). However, the increase at the order onset was not seen throughout the duration. Rescinding the stay-at-home order by and large did not result in an immediate increase in crash rates. Crash rates steadily returned to previous year averages during the post-stay-at-home period. Fatal crash rates were unaffected by the stay-at-home order and remained similar to previous year rates throughout the study duration.
Discussion
The initial onset of the stay-at-home order in Connecticut was associated with a sharp increase in the single vehicle crash rate but that increase was not sustained for the remainder of the stay-at-home order. Likely changes in driver characteristics during and after the order kept fatal crash rates similar to previous years.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.