Initial impact of COVID-19’s stay-at-home order on motor vehicle traffic and crash patterns in Connecticut: an interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

IntroductionUnderstanding how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted our health and safety is imperative. This study sought to examine the impact of COVID-19’s stay-at-home order on daily vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and MVCs in Connecticut.MethodsUsing an interrupted time series design, we analysed daily VMT and MVCs stratified by crash severity and number of vehicles involved from 1 January to 30 April 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. MVC data were collected from the Connecticut Crash Data Repository; daily VMT estimates were obtained from StreetLight Insight’s database. We used segmented Poisson regression models, controlling for daily temperature and daily precipitation.ResultsThe mean daily VMT significantly decreased 43% in the post stay-at-home period in 2020. While the mean daily counts of crashes decreased in 2020 after the stay-at-home order was enacted, several types of crash rates increased after accounting for the VMT reductions. Single vehicle crash rates significantly increased 2.29 times, and specifically single vehicle fatal crash rates significantly increased 4.10 times when comparing the pre-stay-at-home and post-stay-at-home periods.DiscussionDespite a decrease in the number of MVCs and VMT, the crash rate of single vehicles increased post stay-at-home order enactment in Connecticut after accounting for reductions in VMT.

Covid-19, Lockdowns and Motor Vehicle Collisions: Empirical Evidence from Greece

“…The findings of this paper add to the existing literature that found a change in MVC, injuries and deaths during the pandemic, whether they report an increase [19][20][21][22] or a decrease. 23 The findings also relate to the discussion on excess mortality and other spillover effects 5,29 and provide evidence on yet another possible factor contributing to the impact of Covid-19 on other health outcomes.…”

“…There have been reports of a decrease in collisions and injuries during lockdowns in a number of countries, [19][20][21][22] but a recent study presents evidence of an increase in speeding and deaths in others. 23 There is also evidence on an increase in speeding in Greece in the early stages of the pandemic.…”

Empty Streets, Speeding and Motor Vehicle Collisions during Covid-19 Lockdowns: Evidence from Northern Ireland

“…While there is consensus on a reduction in collisions, [15][16][17][18] the results on fatalities are not always in the same direction. 2,19 Findings also provide additional evidence on the spillover effects of Covid-19 on other health outcomes in Northern Ireland and elsewhere.…”

“…Early empirical evidence suggests that there has been a decrease in collisions during the pandemic. 2,[15][16][17][18] Interestingly, in the USA there has been a reduction in MVCs in the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, [15][16] but at the same time there has been an increase in deaths. 19 The objective of this study is to examine whether and to what extent MVCs, injuries and deaths were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in Northern Ireland.…”

“…Early empirical evidence suggests that there has been a decrease in collisions during the pandemic. 2,15-18 Interestingly, in the USA there has been a reduction in MVCs in the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, 15-16 but at the same time there has been an increase in deaths. 19…”