This article presents and assesses the state of the art in research on the course and outcomes of international mediation. The review consists of three parts. First, the elusive notion of mediation success is addressed. Second, the key contextual and process factors thought to explain international mediation outcomes are discussed. The final part raises a number of problems with current theorizing, and a plea is made for a more fundamental reflection on the assumptions underlying present research. Using a heuristic adaptation of the metatheoretical framework developed by Burrell and Morgan, it is argued that four fundamentally different currents of thought about international conflict and its management may be discerned. These four proto-theories may help us to put into perspective current debates and contradictory findings, as well as generate a more coherent foundation for future research on the success and failure of mediation in international conflict.
This paper briefly reviews the classic and more recent literature on crisis simulations. After discussing the essence of simulations, as opposed to scenarios and games, five functions of simulations are highlighted: a research tool; a teaching and training instrument; a planning method; a tool for designing decision support systems; and a personnel selection method. Different design dimensions of educational and research simulations are brought to the fore.
The theories of Zartman, Haass and Stedman focus on the notion of ripeness of conflict. In their view, conflict resolution depends above all on the identification of a ripe moment in the course of a conflict. This is the only time a third party has any chance to succeed. This essay seeks to provide an answer to the question whether the idea of ripeness is a fruitful notion in the discussion of third-party intervention. In doing so, the empirical usefulness and theoretical foundation of the idea of ripeness in the three studies are examined and compared. The analysis has five parts: (1) it discusses the concept of ripeness as developed by the three authors; (2) it looks at the role of a third party in relation to such ripe moments; (3) it compares the methodological basis on which the idea of ripeness has come about and how it has been used in the three books; (4) and it assesses the analytical value of ripeness as an explanatory and prescriptive tool. In the conclusion (5) the author provides three arguments why the notion of ripeness in the way it has been approached so far is problematic. The idea of willingness is proposed as a useful alternative.
A crucial set of timing issues in international conflict management pertains to the moment and mode of entry to the conflict by a third party. Current middle-range theories on timing of third-party intervention focus on the identification of `ripe moments' in the evolution of a conflict when it can be most successfully dealt with by mediation. In contrast, it will be argued in this paper that one cannot treat time as an independent variable in international conflict. The role of temporal factors and the timing is embedded in a broader theory on the nature and importance of international mediation, which, in turn, rests on normative foundations and empirical assertions about the nature and study of international politics. The purpose of this paper is to lay the foundation for such theories on international mediation and in particular the role of temporal factors and timing herein. The mediation attempts in the Falklands/Malvinas conflict between Argentina and Great Britain will serve as an illustration of our theoretical argument.
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