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Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward 'well below 2 °C' instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing significantly thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving energy access and food security goals but reduce those for achieving air quality goals.

Fay and Yepes estimate demand for infrastructure demand rather than on any absolute measure of "need" services over the first decade of the new millennium such as those developed in the Millenium Development based on a model that relates demand for infrastructure Goals. The authors also provide estimates of associated with the structural change and growth in income the investment and maintenance expenditures and predict world is expected to undergo between now and 2010. It total required resource flows to satisfy new demand should be noted that predictions are based on estimated while maintaining service for existing infrastructure.

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The research in this paper was funded in part by the World Bank and by Meteo-France. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its executive directors, the countries they represent, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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