Aim To relate the dispersal limitation of endemic terrestrial mammals in Mexico to species life-history traits and latitude.Location Mexico.Methods We modelled species ecological niches projected as potential distributions (P) using point occurrence data and 19 environmental variables for 89 endemic mammal species, and compared the areas covered by these ecological niche models with maps of species actual distributions (R) based on minimum convex polygons connecting marginal records based on museum specimens. We correlated body mass, food habits (herbivore, omnivore, insectivore, frugivore/granivore), volant and non-volant (fossorial, arboreal, terrestrial) habits and mean latitude to the proportion of occupancy of species potential distributional areas (R/P).Results R and P were significantly positively correlated, with an overall average R/P ratio of 0.49. Less than half of the endemics (41 species) had a high occupancy (R/P values ranging from 0.50 to 0.90); a few (four species) showed full occupancy (> 0.90). Body mass and food habits were not correlated with R/P, but latitude showed significant correlations with R/P; volant mammals tended to show higher R/P values than non-volant mammals.Main conclusions Few species filled most of the spatial extent of their ecological niches. Life-history traits were generally poor predictors of proportional occupancy of species potential distributions. Endemics occurring at higher latitudes showed higher occupancy, suggesting that abiotic factors are likely to limit their distributions. Conversely, species at lower latitudes showed lower occupancy, suggesting that their distributions are limited by biotic factors and/or by geographical or historical barriers that prevent dispersal. The dispersal abilities of volant compared with non-volant endemics can explain the higher occupancy in species potential distributions in the former group. These trends provide a baseline for exploring the importance of life-history traits and abiotic versus biotic factors in limiting species distributions.

Habitat persistence should influence dispersal ability, selecting for stronger dispersal in habitats of lower temporal stability. As standing (lentic) freshwater habitats are on average less persistent over time than running (lotic) habitats, lentic species should show higher dispersal abilities than lotic species. Assuming that climate is an important determinant of species distributions, we hypothesize that lentic species should have distributions that are closer to equilibrium with current climate, and should more rapidly track climatic changes. We tested these hypotheses using datasets from 1988 and 2006 containing all European dragon-and damselfly species. Bioclimatic envelope models showed that lentic species were closer to climatic equilibrium than lotic species. Furthermore, the models over-predicted lotic species ranges more strongly than lentic species ranges, indicating that lentic species track climatic changes more rapidly than lotic species. These results are consistent with the proposed hypothesis that habitat persistence affects the evolution of dispersal.

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A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions.