The aim of this paper is to describe a new integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies. More specifically, the approach uses extensive Monte Carlo simulation to obtain information about the expected behavior of the project. This dataset is exploited in several ways using different statistical learning methodologies in a structured fashion. Initially, simulations are used to detect if project deviations are a consequence of the expected variability using Anomaly Detection algorithms. If the project follows this expected variability, probabilities of success in cost and time and expected cost and total duration of the project can be estimated using classification and regression approaches.
In this work, we aim to contribute to the understanding of the human pro-social behavior by studying the influence that a particular form of social pressure "being watched" has on the evolution of cooperative behavior. We study how cooperation emerge in multiplex complex topologies by analyzing a particular bidirectionallycoupled dynamics on top of a two-layers multiplex network (duplex). The coupled dynamics appears between the Prisoner's Dilemma game in a network, and a threshold cascade model in the other. The threshold model is intended to abstract the behavior of a network of vigilant nodes, that impose pressure of being observed altering hence the temptation to defect of the dilemma. Cooperation or defection in the game also affects the state of a node of being vigilant. We analyze these processes on different duplex networks structures and assess the influence of the topology, average degree and correlated multiplexity, on the outcome of cooperation. Interestingly, we find that the social pressure of vigilance may impact cooperation positively or negatively, depending on the duplex structure, specifically the degree correlations between layers is determinant. Our results give further quantitative insights in the promotion of cooperation under social pressure.
We study the influence that resource availability has on cooperation in the context of hunter-gatherer societies. This paper proposes a model based on archaeological and ethnographic research on resource stress episodes, which exposes three different cooperative regimes according to the relationship between resource availability in the environment and population size. The most interesting regime represents moderate survival stress in which individuals coordinate in an evolutionary way to increase the probabilities of survival and reduce the risk of failing to meet the minimum needs for survival. Populations self-organise in an indirect reciprocity system in which the norm that emerges is to share the part of the resource that is not strictly necessary for survival, thereby collectively lowering the chances of starving. Our findings shed further light on the emergence and evolution of cooperation in hunter-gatherer societies.
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