We assess the impact on the Italian economy of the main unconventional monetary policies adopted by the ECB in 2011-2012 (SMP, 3-year LTROs and OMTs) by following a two-step approach. We evaluate their effects on money market interest rates, government bond yields and credit availability and then map them onto macroeconomic implications using the Bank of Italy quarterly model of the Italian economy. We find that the SMP and the OMTs have been effective in counteracting increases in government bond yields and that the LTROs have had a beneficial impact on credit supply and money market conditions. From a macroeconomic perspective, we find that the unconventional policies have had a large positive effect on the Italian economy, mainly through the credit channel, with a cumulative impact on GDP growth of 2.7 percentage points over the period 2012-2013. To conclude, while the policies did not prevent the Italian economy from falling into recession, they did avoid a more intense credit crunch and a larger output fall than those actually observed.

We study empirically the distributional implications of a non-standard monetary policy expansion, considering the measures implemented by the Eurosystem in 2011-2013 and exploiting a rich micro dataset on Italian households' income and wealth, in order to take contemporaneously into account a number of income-and wealth-related channels. Our results do not support the claim that an unconventional monetary loosening acts as a "reverse Robin Hood". Larger benefits accrue to households at the bottom of the income scale, as the effects via the stimulus to economic activity and employment outweigh those via financial variables. The response of net wealth is U-shaped: less wealthy households take advantage of their leveraged positions, wealthier households of their larger share of financial assets. Overall, the effects on inequality are negligible. The results also suggest that the risk of an "expropriation of savers" is not likely to materialize, as the decrease in the remuneration of savings is compensated by support to labor income and by capital gains.

La recessione mondiale innescata dalla crisi finanziaria si è ripercossa con straordinaria violenza sull'attività economica dell'Italia. Qual è stato il contributo dei diversi canali mediante i quali la crisi si è trasmessa alla nostra economia? Quali sono stati gli effetti delle reazioni delle politiche economiche? Per dare risposta a questi interrogativi, in questo lavoro viene realizzata un'indagine controfattuale dell'evoluzione dell'economia italiana nell'arco temporale 2008-2010, esplorando scenari coerenti con l'ipotesi di "assenza di crisi". Si valuta che gli eventi seguiti alle turbolenze finanziarie abbiano sottratto 6,5 punti percentuali alla crescita del PIL nel triennio. In particolare, i fattori di crisi avrebbero gravato per quasi 10 punti percentuali, prevalentemente nel 2009; le politiche economiche e gli stabilizzatori automatici ne avrebbero mitigato l'impatto per circa 3,5 punti percentuali. La maggior parte degli effetti della crisi sarebbe attribuibile all'evoluzione del contesto internazionale; un ruolo meno rilevante, sia pure non trascurabile, avrebbero avuto il peggioramento delle condizioni di finanziamento delle imprese e la crisi da sfiducia che si è accompagnata alla recessione.

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The Bank of Italy quarterly econometric model (BIQM) is a large-scale 'semi structural' macro-econometric model. It tries to strike the right balance between theoretical rigour and statistical fit to the data. This paper provides an update of the features and the properties of the model, focussing on the empirical estimates of its main equations and on the system responses to various shocks; interactions and feedback mechanisms between the financial and the real side of the economy are also illustrated. The BIQM is primarily used to produce macroeconomic forecasts, but it is also employed -in conjunction with other toolsfor evaluating the impact of monetary and fiscal policy options and for counterfactual analyses. Examples of the types of macro-economic analyses carried out with the model are provided.