This study simulated the connectivity patterns among 7 coral reef systems in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Two subgroups of reefs were considered: one near the mainland over the narrow western shelf, and the other over the wide Campeche Bank (CB). A particle-tracking module was coupled to a realistic simulation with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model in order to study the transport and dispersion of particles in near surface waters. The simulation consisted of the launch of 100 passive particles (virtual larvae) from each reef, every 24 h over a 5 year period; it considered species lasting up to 35 d in the plankton and assumed no seasonality in reproduction. On the western shelf, connection was northwards from March to August, and southwards from September to February; over the CB edge, the connection was northwestwards throughout the year. Over the western shelf, reefs showed a strong degree of interconnectivity and high particle retention. Higher self-recruitment was most likely due to the passage of synoptic-scale atmospheric systems and their associated changes in wind and current direction. In contrast, CB reefs exhibited lower connectivity and less larval retention. Over the western edge of the Bank, connectivity was almost unidirectional because of the influence of the cyclonic gyre in the Campeche Bay, which causes particles to disperse over a wide area with low probabilities of selfrecruitment. The main connection pathway was the confluence zone between neritic and oceanic waters over the outer shelf of the Bank. Connection between the 2 groups of reefs was weak.

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Abstract. Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef–dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef–dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

Abstract. Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90% of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of the barrier reefs and dunes in 15 coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to investigate the role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea. Firstly, a nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH) is validated with experimental data from a physical model of a fringing reef. The numerical model predicts both energy transformation and runup statistics as compared with experimental results for two different reef crest geometries 20 conducted in a physical model. Thus, the numerical model is further used to investigate the role of the reef-dune degradation in coastal vulnerability. Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef-dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to predict extreme runup and estimate the storm impact scale for different scenarios. The numerical results show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. This highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to 25 decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term.