The maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus) is one of the largest South American canids, and conservation across this charismatic carnivore's large range is presently hampered by a lack of knowledge about possible natural subdivisions which could influence the population's viability. To elucidate the phylogeographic patterns and demographic history of the species, we used 2 mtDNA markers (D-loop and cytochrome b) from 87 individuals collected throughout their range, in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Uruguay. We found moderate levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity, and the 14 D-loop haplotypes were closely related. Genetic structure results revealed 4 groups, and when coupled with model inferences from a coalescent analysis, suggested that maned wolves have undergone demographic fluctuations due to changes in climate and habitat during the Pleistocene glaciation period approximately 24000 years before present (YBP). This genetic signature points to an event that occurred within the timing estimated for the start of the contraction of the Cerrado around 50000 YBP. Our results reveal a genetic signature of population size expansion followed by contraction during Pleistocene interglaciations, which had similar impacts on other South American mammals. The 4 groups should for now be considered management units, within which future monitoring efforts should be conducted independently.
ResumenEste artículo evalúa uno de los componentes fundamentales de la política más icónica del gobierno de Álvaro Uribe: la Seguridad Democrática. En particular, se evalúa el impacto sobre la intensidad del conflicto armado de los despliegues y refuerzos de policía en municipios con poca o nula presencia policial antes de agosto de 2002. Para ello se utiliza el estimador de diferencia en diferencias, que compara el cambio en la dinámica del conflicto una vez asignados los nuevos efectivos a los municipios receptores, relativo al cambio ocurrido simultáneamente en los municipios no receptores. Nuestros resultados, que son robustos a estimar los modelos sobre una muestra emparejada, sugieren Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad
69I semestre 2012 * Se agradecen los comentarios de Ximena Peña y dos evaluadores anónimos, y la colaboración de Mauricio Vela y Giselle Vesga. Esta investigación fue financiada por la Universidad del Rosario, por medio del Proyecto FIUR DVG-086.
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