The reported rates of serious adverse events were low after anti-VEGF injections. There is no sufficient evidence to conclude that there is a difference in incidences between the anti-VEGFs.

Aflibercept is a cost-effective treatment for AMD over ranibizumab. However, aflibercept is not a cost-effective treatment when compared to bevacizumab. Application of inappropriate model assumptions leads to a biased cost-saving estimate of the cost-effectiveness of aflibercept. Therefore, cost-effectiveness analyses should be conducted with appropriate models.

BackgroundDescribing the natural course of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is essential in discussing prognosis and treatment options with patients and to support cost-effectiveness studies.MethodsFirst, we performed a literature search in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane. We included randomized clinical trials and prospective observational studies reporting visual acuity (VA) in non-treated patients, 24 studies in total. We integrated VA data using best fit on Lineweaver-Burke plots and modelled with non-linear regression using reciprocal terms. Second, we performed a quality-of-life (QoL) study in nAMD patients. We measured VA with Radner reading charts and QoL with the Health Utilities Index issue 3 (HUI-3) questionnaire in 184 participants. We studied the relation VA-QoL with linear regression. Third, with Monte Carlo simulation, we integrated the VA model from the literature review and the relation VA-QoL from the QoL study.ResultsVisual acuity was 0.4 and 0.07 after 5 years in the better-seeing, and worse-seeing eye, respectively. After 4.3 years, VA was <0.5 in the better-seeing eye; <0.3 after 7 years; 0.05 after 17 years. QoL score decreased from 0.6 to 0.45 after 10 years.ConclusionsThe natural course of nAMD in both eyes needs to be considered when informing patients. Visual acuity in the best eye decreases to below 0.5 in 4.3 years. This affects QoL significantly.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12886-017-0514-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Two of the CEAs of sufficient quality and validity show that bevacizumab PRN is the most cost-effective treatment. Comparing ranibizumab and aflibercept, either treatment can be more cost-effective depending on the assumptions used for drug prices and treatment frequencies. The majority of the published CEAs are of insufficient quality and validity. They wrongly inform decision-makers at the cost of opportunities for ophthalmologists to treat patients. As such, they may negatively influence overall patient outcomes and societal costs. For future ophthalmic treatments, CEAs need to be improved and only published when they are of sufficient quality and validity.

Background: Following the principles of value-based health care, outcomes and processes of daily-practice eye care need to be systematically evaluated. We illustrate an approach that can be used to support data-driven quality improvements. We used patient data regarding the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). Methods: In a cohort study, we reviewed medical records of patients with nAMD confirmed on fluorescein angiography (FA). Patients were treated with intravitreal injections with bevacizumab; ranibizumab; or photodynamic therapy (PDT). Visual acuity (VA), ophthalmic exam results and treatments were recorded. VA was compared between treatments by linear mixed model. Diagnosis was re-evaluated on the original FAs. Outcome analysis was performed by 1) selecting VA as the relevant outcome parameter; 2) Preventing selection by comparing treatments with historical untreated cohort and cohorts from the literature, 3) correcting for confounding due to lesion type, and 4) identifying relevant process variables that affect the outcome. These were severity of disease at presentation, and doctor-and patient dependent process variables. Results: In total, 473 eyes were included. At 12 months, change in VA was 0.54, 0.48, 0.09, and 0.07 LogMAR in the notreatment, photodynamic therapy (PDT), bevacizumab, and ranibizumab groups, respectively. Lesion type on FA differed between groups. Diagnosis of nAMD could not be confirmed in 104 patients. Patient delay, inaccurate diagnosis and treatment intervals may have impacted outcomes. Conclusions: The effect of PDT was small to absent. Anti-VEGFs were effective and appeared as effective as in RCTs. Correct selection of a comparator cohort and addressing confounding, including confounding by indication and effect modification, are needed to achieve valid results and interpretation. Patient delay, diagnosis accuracy, indication for and application of treatment can potentially be improved to improve treatment outcomes. In a value-based care perspective, systematic evaluation of diagnostic accuracy, treatment indication, protocols, and outcomes of new interventions is needed at an early stage to improve outcomes.