This paper incorporates costly voluntary acquisition of information à la Nikitin and Smith (2007) (2000) [Allen, F., Gale, D., 2000. Financial contagion. Journal of Political Economy 108, 1 33], without relying on any unexpected shock to model contagion. In this framework, contagion and financial crises are the result of information gathering by depositors, weak fundamentals and an incomplete market structure of banks. It also shows how financial systems entering a recession can affect others with apparently stronger economic conditions (contagion). Finally, this is the first paper to investigate the effectiveness of the Contingent Credit Line procedures, introduced by the IMF at the end of the nineties, as a mechanism to prevent the propagation of crises. Ó JEL classification: G21; D82
This paper extends Diamond and DybvigÕs model [J. Political Economy 91 (1983) 401] to a framework in which bank assets are risky, there is aggregate uncertainty about the demand for liquidity in the population and some individuals receive a signal about bank asset quality. Others must then try to deduce from observed withdrawals whether an unfavorable signal was received by this group or whether liquidity needs happen to be high. In this environment, both information-induced and pure panic runs will occur. However, banks can prevent them by designing the deposit contract appropriately. It is shown that in some cases it is optimal for the bank to prevent runs but there are situations where the bank run allocation may be welfare superior. Ó JEL classification G21; G28
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