Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

On the basis of a semi-realistic SIR microsimulation for Germany and Poland, we show that the R 0 parameter interval for which the COVID-19 epidemic

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Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation. Methods: We analyse 16115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate. Results: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0-39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40-59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest. Conclusions: The proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.

This paper addresses the efficiency of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) communication in a network composed of a large number of tags that transmit information to a single hub using advertisement mode. Theoretical results show that the use of advertisements enables hundreds and thousands of BLE devices to coexist in the same area and at the same time effectively transmit messages. Together with other properties (low power consumption, medium communication range, capability to detect a signal’s angle-of-arrival, etc.), this makes BLE a competing technology for the Internet of Things (IoT) applications. However, as the number of communicating devices increases, the advertisement collision intensifies and the communication performance of BLE drops. This phenomena was so far analyzed theoretically, in simulations and in small-scale experiments, but large-scale experiments are not presented in the literature. This paper complements previous results and presents an experimental evaluation of a real IoT-use case, which is the deployment of over 200 tags communicating using advertisements. We evaluate the impact of the number of advertisements on the effective data reception rate and throughput. Despite the advertisement collision rate in our experiment varying between 0.22 and 0.33, we show that BLE, thanks to the multiple transmission of advertisements, can still ensure acceptable data reception rates and fulfill the requirements of a wide range of IoT applications.

The use of Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) in the Internet-of-Things (IoT) applications has become widespread and popular. This has resulted in the increased number of deployed BLE devices. To ensure energy efficiency, applications use connectionless communication where nodes broadcast information using advertisement messages. As the BLE devices compete for access to spectrum, collisions are inevitable and methods that improve device coexistence are required. This paper proposes a connectionless communication scheme for BLE that improves communication efficiency in IoT applications where a large number of BLE nodes operate in the same area and communicate simultaneously to a central server. The proposed scheme is based on an active scanning mode and is compared with a typical application where passive scanning mode is used. The evaluation is based on numerical simulations and real-life evaluation of a network containing 150 devices. The presented scheme significantly reduces the number of messages transmitted by each node and decreases packet loss ratio. It also improves the energy efficiency and preserves the battery of BLE nodes as they transmit fewer radio messages and effectively spent less time actively communicating. The proposed connectionless BLE communication scheme can be applied to a large variety of IoT applications improving their performance and coexistence with other devices operating in the 2.4 GHz band. Additionally, the implementation complexity and costs of the proposed communication scheme are negligible.

Niacin (nicotinic acid, NA) is administered orally as an antihyperlipidemic agent in extended-release (ER) tablets in high doses. Due to rapid absorption and extensive metabolism (non-linear pharmacokinetics), the drug plasma levels are highly variable, which may correlate with side effects. Interestingly, this erratic drug delivery behavior of niacin ER products cannot be clarified by compendial in vitro release testing. The standard dissolution tests do not allow to mimic the selected GI tract characteristics in order to estimate the robustness of formulation under the variability of the physiological conditions. These are characterized by the pH value, impact of motility forces and composition, as well as volume of GI liquids. Our paper demonstrates a comparison of a newly developed ER HPMC niacin formulation with an originator product. The research aimed to design a robust matrix tablet of comparable biopharmaceutical behavior, safety and efficacy. The extensive in vitro investigation, including dynamic studies in flow-through cell apparatus and stress test device, forms the basis for the evaluation of nicotinic acid plasma concentrations in vivo. The occurrence of erratic, multiple NA plasma peaks after the administration of both extendedrelease products is a result of its local input excess over the metabolic threshold (at the level corresponding to maximum 2% of the administered dose, i.e., 20 mg of drug) due to the mechanical stresses of physiological intensity. We demonstrate how this behavior is similar for both marketed and test products. In this context, we describe how a robust ER matrix and well-designed formulation does not guarantee the test product's bioequivalence to the comparator one out of reasons unrelated to technology and biopharmaceutical properties, but because of the active compound's intrinsic pharmacokinetic characteristics, i.e., highly variable, extensive metabolism of nicotinic acid.

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