Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Böck, Wolfgang; Adamik, Barbara; Bawiec, Marek A.; Bezborodov, Viktor; Bodych, Marcin; Burgard, Jan Pablo; Goetz, Thomas; Krueger, Tyll; Migalska, Agata; Pabjan, Barbara; Ożański, Tomasz; Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Skubalska-Rafajłowicz, Ewa; Ryfczynska, Sara; Szczurek, Ewa; Szymański, Piotr

doi:10.1101/2020.03.25.20043109

Cited by 49 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 14 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…An infection chain can be broken if both, the carrier and the recipient of the virus, use a tracing app "effectively", meaning that the recipient of the virus can be sent to quarantine before he or she is infectious (i.e., enters one of the groups in compartment I). 3 We model the impact of tracing by splitting the compartment E consisting of individuals in the incubation period. In particular, we assume that, as a spreader of the virus, only individuals that are aware of their infection (symptomatic or severely infectious) can be recognized by the health authorities and can contribute to break infection chains if they use the app effectively.…”

Section: The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Those extensions are easily possible by modifying of Equation (3). 3 This obviously depends on individual compliance in downloading and using the app but it may also depend on the effectiveness of the health system to contact potentially infected people and send them into quarantine, i.e., on the speed of notification etc. Also note that the fraction of the population that uses tracing apps may vary across groups due to acceptance, ability, or availability of a smart phone.…”

Section: The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19

Grimm

Mengel

Schmidt

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide face the challenge of designing tailored measures of epidemic control to provide reliable health protection while allowing more societal and economic activity. In this paper, we propose an extension of the epidemiological SEIR model to enable a detailed analysis of commonly discussed tailored measures of epidemic control-among them group-specific protection and the use of tracing apps. We introduce groups into the SEIR model that may differ both, in their underlying parameters as well as in their behavioral response to public health interventions. We allow for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. Our results visualize the sharp trade-offs between different goals of epidemic control, namely a low death toll, avoiding overload of the health system, and a short duration of the epidemic. We show that a combination of tailored mechanisms, e.g., the protection of vulnerable groups together with a "trace & isolate" approach, can be effective in preventing a high death toll. Protection of vulnerable groups without further measures requires unrealistically strict isolation. A key insight is that high compliance is critical for the effectiveness of a "trace & isolate" approach. Our model allows to analyze the interplay of group-specific social distancing and tracing also beyond our case study in scenarios with a large number of groups reflecting, e.g., sectoral, regional, or age differentiation and group-specific take-up rates for tracing apps.

show abstract

Section: The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19

Grimm

Mengel

Schmidt

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…30 Specific objectives of this research are: 1) to investigate the effectiveness of contact 31 reduction policies with respect to intensity and duration and 2) to estimate the amount 32 of time to establish herd immunity by considering the national health care systems of 33 Austria and Sweden, which are very different in terms of critical care capabilities. A 34 detailed description of model equations, assumptions as well as uncertainty of currently 35 available data are presented in the following section. Data uncertainty is addressed by 36 the analysis of alternative scenario runs to enhance robustness of model results.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is important to mention that assumptions and policies implemented in models are 232 not exactly reproducible in reality. For instance, Bock et al [35] argue that mitigation 233 measures imposed by state authorities can hardly be fine-tuned enough to hit the 234 narrow feasible interval of epidemiologically relevant parameters with which a successful 235 mitigation is possible. Given those constraints, as well as trade-offs associated with 236 required long-term lockdown, we conclude that the success of a strategy based on social 237 distancing, delay and herd immunity is unrealistic under known preconditions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Investigating duration and intensity of Covid-19 social-distancing strategies

Neuwirth

Gruber

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The exponential character of the recent Covid-19 outbreak requires a change in strategy from containment to mitigation. Meanwhile, most countries apply social distancing with the objective to keep the number of critical cases below the capabilities of the health care system. Due to the novelty and rapid spread of the virus, an a priori assessment of this strategy was not possible. In this study, we present a model-based systems analysis to assess the effectiveness of social distancing measures in terms of intensity and duration of application. Results show a super-linear scaling between intensity (percent contact reduction) and required duration of application to have an added value (lower fatality rate). This holds true for an effective reproduction of R > 1 and is reverted for R < 1. If R is not reduced below 1, secondary effects of required long-term isolation are likely to unravel the added value of disease mitigation. If an extinction is not feasible, we recommend moderate social-distancing that is well balanced against capability limits of national health-care systems.2 COVID-19 cases is above 2.5 million resulting in over 170,000 deaths [1]. Due to these 3 large numbers, the initial approach of containment, i.e. tracing contacts of patients with 4 laboratory-confirmed infection [2], is not applicable anymore and may even have 5 unintended consequences of hampering effective healthcare delivery [3]. Instead, the 6 majority of countries decided to use community interventions, like cancellation of events, 7 general social distancing and travel restrictions [4].8These community mitigation measures reduce transmission, hence flatten the curve 9 and push the peak of new infections further into the future which eventually helps 10 preventing an epidemic peak that overwhelms health-care systems [5]. Numerous 11 studies support this strategy [3] [4] [6] [7]. There is no doubt that this is the right 12 course of action to protect the lives of many vulnerable patients. Nevertheless, 13 considering the basic reproduction of Covid-19 as well as the considerable variation of 14 regional availability of intensive care [8], drastic interventions are needed to push new 15infections below the maximum capabilities of national health care systems. This is also 16 evident from the actions taken by European countries who implemented interventions

show abstract

Employing drug delivery strategies to create safe and effective pharmaceuticals for COVID‐19

McHugh

2020

Bioengineering & Transla Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail

Abstract: On the basis of a semi-realistic SIR microsimulation for Germany and Poland, we show that the R 0 parameter interval for which the COVID-19 epidemic

Cited by 49 publications

References 14 publications

Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19

Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19

Investigating duration and intensity of Covid-19 social-distancing strategies

Employing drug delivery strategies to create safe and effective pharmaceuticals for COVID‐19

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About