We examine the joint consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018)(2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail-children-to-be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at-term children.
Background Previous research has documented that children conceived through medically assisted reproduction (MAR) are at increased risk of poor birth outcomes, such as low birthweight (LBW), which are risk factors for stunted longer-term cognitive development. However, parents who undergo MAR to conceive have, on average, advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds which could compensate for the negative effects of being born LBW. Previous studies have not analysed whether the negative effects of LBW are attenuated among MAR conceived children. Methods We draw on the UK Millennium Cohort Study (sweeps 1–6) which contains a sub-sample of (N = 396) MAR-conceived children. The dependent variable measures cognitive ability at around ages 3, 5, 7, 11 and 14. We examine the cognitive development of four groups of children: MAR-conceived low birthweight (MAR LBW); MAR-conceived non-low birthweight (MAR NLBW); naturally conceived low birthweight (NC LBW); naturally conceived non-low birthweight (NC NLBW). We estimate the two following linear regression models for each sweep: (i) a baseline model to examine the unadjusted association between cognitive development and low birthweight by mode of conception; and (ii) a model adjusted by socio-demographic family characteristics. Results In baseline models, MAR LBW children [age 3: β = 0.021, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.198, 0.241; age 5: β = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.009, 0.418; age 7: β = 0.163, 95% CI: -0.148, 0.474; age 11: β = 0.003, 95% CI: -0.318, 0.325; age 14: β = 0.156, 95% CI: -0.205, 0.517], on average perform similarly in cognitive ability relative to NC NLBW at all ages, and display higher cognitive scores than NC LBW children until age 7. When we account for family characteristics, differences are largely attenuated and become close to zero at age 14. Conclusions Despite the higher incidence of LBW among MAR compared with NC children, they do not seem to experience any disadvantage in their cognitive development compared with naturally conceived children. This finding is likely explained by the fact that, on average, MAR children are born to socioeconomically advantaged parents.
Previous research has shown that seemingly irrelevant events such as unexpected outcomes in sporting events can affect mood and have relevant consequences for episodes of crime and violence, investing behavior and political preferences. In this article, we test whether mood shocks associated with unexpected results in soccer matches in Spain affect fertility. We use data on betting odds and actual scores to define mood shocks and link them to births by month and province in Spain, between 2001 and 2015. We find that unexpected losses of local teams lead to a small decrease in the number of births nine months thereafter. The effect is larger for more unexpected losses, in those provinces with the largest amount of support for the local team and robust to a number of placebo tests. We argue that these results are consistent with the gain–loss asymmetry predicted by prospect theory.
Demographic change almost never happens fast, except during wars, natural disasters, and pandemics. We ask what the joint consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes are by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (8–9 months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the ten previous years (2010-2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR), especially among women at the beginning and the end of their reproductive age. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as a birth-outcomes improvement due to the missing conception of frail-children-to-be (including pre-term children) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at-term children.
Across EU countries, all available evidence suggests that the number of deaths linked to COVID-19 among those living in nursing homes has been extremely high. However, it is largely unknown to what extent income and education affect the probability of being a nursing home resident. If the probability of residing in a nursing home is stratified by socio-economic status, under the current COVID-19 pandemic socio-economic inequality in the probability of living in a nursing home could contribute to enlarge socio-economic inequalities in the risk of mortality with COVID-19. In this article, we investigate whether there are income and educational differences in the likelihood of being a resident in a nursing home across 12 European countries. We use SHARE data (waves 5–7) and compute logistic regression models for rare events. We find that low-educated individuals and those having household income below the national median are more likely to live in a nursing home. This general pattern holds across all the European countries considered. However, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates due to a small sample size, and firm conclusions on how the effect of socio-economic characteristics varies across countries cannot be drawn. Still, there is some indication that educational and income differences are the largest in the Scandinavian countries (Denmark and Sweden) and the Netherlands, while the smallest ones are found in Italy, with the remaining countries laying in between.
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