Background We aimed to ascertain the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compare it with that of people without diabetes, and to investigate risk factors for and build a crossvalidated predictive model of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 among people with diabetes. MethodsIn this cohort study, we captured the data encompassing the first wave of the pandemic in Scotland, from March 1, 2020, when the first case was identified, to July 31, 2020, when infection rates had dropped sufficiently that shielding measures were officially terminated. The participants were the total population of Scotland, including all people with diabetes who were alive 3 weeks before the start of the pandemic in Scotland (estimated Feb 7, 2020). We ascertained how many people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in this period from the Electronic Communication of Surveillance in Scotland database (on virology), the RAPID database of daily hospitalisations, the Scottish Morbidity Records-01 of hospital discharges, the National Records of Scotland death registrations data, and the Scottish Intensive Care Society and Audit Group database (on critical care). Among people with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19, diabetes status was ascertained by linkage to the national diabetes register, Scottish Care Information Diabetes. We compared the cumulative incidence of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with and without diabetes using logistic regression. For people with diabetes, we obtained data on potential risk factors for fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 from the national diabetes register and other linked health administrative databases. We tested the association of these factors with fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes, and constructed a prediction model using stepwise regression and 20-fold cross-validation. Findings Of the total Scottish population onMarch 1, 2020 (n=5 463 300), the population with diabetes was 319 349 (5•8%), 1082 (0•3%) of whom developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 by July 31, 2020, of whom 972 (89•8%) were aged 60 years or older. In the population without diabetes, 4081 (0•1%) of 5 143 951 people developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19. As of July 31, the overall odds ratio (OR) for diabetes, adjusted for age and sex, was 1•395 (95% CI 1•304-1•494; p<0•0001, compared with the risk in those without diabetes. The OR was 2•396 (1•815-3•163; p<0•0001) in type 1 diabetes and 1•369 (1•276-1•468; p<0•0001) in type 2 diabetes. Among people with diabetes, adjusted for age, sex, and diabetes duration and type, those who developed fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 were more likely to be male, live in residential care or a more deprived area, have a COVID-19 risk condition, retinopathy, reduced renal function, or worse glycaemic control, have had a diabetic ketoacidosis or hypoglycaemia hospitalisation in the past 5 years, be on more...

Here we evaluated the performance of a large set of serum biomarkers for the prediction of rapid progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes. We used a case-control design nested within a prospective cohort of patients with baseline eGFR 30-60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Within a 3.5-year period of Go-DARTS study patients, 154 had over a 40% eGFR decline and 153 controls maintained over 95% of baseline eGFR. A total of 207 serum biomarkers were measured and logistic regression was used with forward selection to choose a subset that were maximized on top of clinical variables including age, gender, hemoglobin A1c, eGFR, and albuminuria. Nested cross-validation determined the best number of biomarkers to retain and evaluate for predictive performance. Ultimately, 30 biomarkers showed significant associations with rapid progression and adjusted for clinical characteristics. A panel of 14 biomarkers increased the area under the ROC curve from 0.706 (clinical data alone) to 0.868. Biomarkers selected included fibroblast growth factor-21, the symmetric to asymmetric dimethylarginine ratio, β2-microglobulin, C16-acylcarnitine, and kidney injury molecule-1. Use of more extensive clinical data including prebaseline eGFR slope improved prediction but to a lesser extent than biomarkers (area under the ROC curve of 0.793). Thus we identified several novel associations of biomarkers with CKD progression and the utility of a small panel of biomarkers to improve prediction.

This paper addresses the role of centrality in the implementation of interior point methods. We provide theoretical arguments to justify the use of a symmetric neighbourhood, and translate them into computational practice leading to a new insight into the role of re-centering in the implementation of interior point methods. Second-order correctors, such as Mehrotra's predictor-corrector, can occasionally fail: we derive a remedy to such difficulties from a new interpretation of multiple centrality correctors. Through extensive numerical experience we show that the proposed centrality correcting scheme leads to noteworthy savings over second-order predictor-corrector technique and previous implementations of multiple centrality correctors.

Higher HbA in type 1 diabetes is associated with changes in the serum N-glycome that have elsewhere been shown to regulate the epidermal growth factor receptor and transforming growth factor-β pathways that are implicated in DKD. Furthermore, N-glycans are associated with ACR and eGFR slope. These data suggest that the role of altered N-glycans in DKD warrants further investigation.

Male pattern baldness (MPB) or androgenetic alopecia is one of the most common conditions affecting men, reaching a prevalence of ~50% by the age of 50; however, the known genes explain little of the heritability. Here, we present the results of a genome-wide association study including more than 70,000 men, identifying 71 independently replicated loci, of which 30 are novel. These loci explain 38% of the risk, suggesting that MPB is less genetically complex than other complex traits. We show that many of these loci contain genes that are relevant to the pathology and highlight pathways and functions underlying baldness. Finally, despite only showing genome-wide genetic correlation with height, pathway-specific genetic correlations are significant for traits including lifespan and cancer. Our study not only greatly increases the number of MPB loci, illuminating the genetic architecture, but also provides a new approach to disentangling the shared biological pathways underlying complex diseases.

Aims/hypothesis We selected the most informative protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 2 diabetes. Methods In this nested case-control study we measured 42 candidate CVD biomarkers in 1,123 incident CVD cases and 1,187 controls with type 2 diabetes selected from five European centres. Combinations of biomarkers were selected using cross-validated logistic regression models. Model prediction was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC

Aims/hypothesisAs part of the Surrogate Markers for Micro- and Macrovascular Hard Endpoints for Innovative Diabetes Tools (SUMMIT) programme we previously reported that large panels of biomarkers derived from three analytical platforms maximised prediction of progression of renal decline in type 2 diabetes. Here, we hypothesised that smaller (n ≤ 5), platform-specific combinations of biomarkers selected from these larger panels might achieve similar prediction performance when tested in three additional type 2 diabetes cohorts.MethodsWe used 657 serum samples, held under differing storage conditions, from the Scania Diabetes Registry (SDR) and Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside (GoDARTS), and a further 183 nested case–control sample set from the Collaborative Atorvastatin in Diabetes Study (CARDS). We analysed 42 biomarkers measured on the SDR and GoDARTS samples by a variety of methods including standard ELISA, multiplexed ELISA (Luminex) and mass spectrometry. The subset of 21 Luminex biomarkers was also measured on the CARDS samples. We used the event definition of loss of >20% of baseline eGFR during follow-up from a baseline eGFR of 30–75 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2. A total of 403 individuals experienced an event during a median follow-up of 7 years. We used discrete-time logistic regression models with tenfold cross-validation to assess association of biomarker panels with loss of kidney function.ResultsTwelve biomarkers showed significant association with eGFR decline adjusted for covariates in one or more of the sample sets when evaluated singly. Kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) showed the most consistent effects, with standardised odds ratios for progression of at least 1.4 (p < 0.0003) in all cohorts. A combination of B2M and KIM-1 added to clinical covariates, including baseline eGFR and albuminuria, modestly improved prediction, increasing the area under the curve in the SDR, Go-DARTS and CARDS by 0.079, 0.073 and 0.239, respectively. Neither the inclusion of additional Luminex biomarkers on top of B2M and KIM-1 nor a sparse mass spectrometry panel, nor the larger multiplatform panels previously identified, consistently improved prediction further across all validation sets.Conclusions/interpretationSerum KIM-1 and B2M independently improve prediction of renal decline from an eGFR of 30–75 ml min−1 [1.73 m]−2 in type 2 diabetes beyond clinical factors and prior eGFR and are robust to varying sample storage conditions. Larger panels of biomarkers did not improve prediction beyond these two biomarkers.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s00125-018-4741-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

Genome-wide linkage and association studies have uncovered variants associated with sarcoidosis, a multi-organ granulomatous inflammatory disease. African ancestry may influence disease pathogenesis since African Americans are more commonly affected by sarcoidosis. Therefore, we conducted the first sarcoidosis genome-wide ancestry scan using a map of 1,384 highly ancestry informative single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped on 1,357 sarcoidosis cases and 703 unaffected controls self-identified as African American. The most significant ancestry association was at marker rs11966463 on chromosome 6p22.3 (ancestry association risk ratio (aRR)= 1.90; p=0.0002). When we restricted the analysis to biopsy-confirmed cases, the aRR for this marker increased to 2.01; p=0.00007. Among the eight other markers that demonstrated suggestive ancestry associations with sarcoidosis were rs1462906 on chromosome 8p12 which had the most significant association with European ancestry (aRR=0.65; p=0.002), and markers on chromosomes 5p13 (aRR=1.46; p=0.005) and 5q31 (aRR=0.67; p=0.005), which correspond to regions we previously identified through sib pair linkage analyses. Overall, the most significant ancestry association for Scadding stage IV cases was to marker rs7919137 on chromosome 10p11.22 (aRR=0.27; p=2×10−5), a region not associated with disease susceptibility. In summary, through admixture mapping of sarcoidosis we have confirmed previous genetic linkages and identified several novel putative candidate loci for sarcoidosis.