40Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with collapse of the roof of a crustal magma 41 reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century and lack of detailed 42 observations has obscured insight on mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use Calderas are 1 -100 km diameter depressions found in volcanic regions of Earth and other planets. basaltic andesite) intrusive activity and eruptions (2,(9)(10)(11)(12). 59The consensus from field and modelling studies is that caldera collapse progresses from initial 60 surface downsag to fault-controlled subsidence (1, 8, 13, 14). The pre-collapse topography is obtained by subtracting the subsidence observed at the surface. As we recorded the caldera subsidence mainly on the ice (Fig. 1, Fig. S1), we made corrections and (Fig. 3A). We therefore conclude that suggestions of a large increase in ice flow out of the caldera 147 during these events (25) cannot be fitted with our data. 148Bedrock subsidence exceeding 1 m occurred within an area of 110 km 2 that extended beyond the 149 pre-existing caldera (Fig. 1, Fig. S1). After termination of collapse the total subsidence at the pre-150 existing caldera rims amounted to 3 to 11 meters ( Fig. 1D and 1E). Using subglacial radio-echo GPS station in the center of the caldera (Fig. 1A), including the rate of vertical rate of ice surface Cumulative number of M>4 caldera earthquakes, with magnitude evolution colored in red, blue and 176 grey representing clusters on the southern rim, the northern rim and smaller clusters, respectively 177 (see Fig. S5). E) Cumulative seismic moment for M>4 caldera earthquakes. from analysis of subaerial gas measurements (Fig. 4). This depth concurs with our regional on FTIR and Multi-GAS measurements (24). 194Seismicity and subsurface structure 195 We used seismic data and Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical modelling (24), to 196 characterize the deeper collapse structure as the reactivation of a steeply-inclined ring fault (Fig. 5). 197We mostly observed seismicity at depths of 0-9 km beneath the northern and southern caldera rims 198( Fig. 5B), with earthquakes being more numerous on the northern rim. This spatial pattern of 199 seismicity is consistent with fracturing above a deflating magma reservoir that was elliptical in (Fig. 5C, D). Our best fitting models had preexisting faults dipping out at 80-85¡ from the caldera 207 center on the north side and at 85-90¡ toward the caldera center on the south side. The modeled pre- 208existing faults lay at 1-2 km below the surface on the north side and 3-4 km on the south side. 209Modeling of a more complex fault geometry or the inclusion of greater material heterogeneity may 210 further improve the data fit, but presently lacks robust geophysical constraints. components of the observed earthquakes at B ‡rdarbunga. We, however, narrowed down on 222 plausible solutions by using the micro-earthquakes (Fig. 5A). The moment tensor solutions are well 223 constrained, but the inferred d...

New satellite missions (e.g., the European Space Agency's Sentinel‐1 constellation), advances in data downlinking, and rapid product generation now provide us with the ability to access space‐geodetic data within hours of their acquisition. To truly take advantage of this opportunity, we need to be able to interpret geodetic data in a prompt and robust manner. Here we present a Bayesian approach for the inversion of multiple geodetic data sets that allows a rapid characterization of posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of source model parameters. The inversion algorithm efficiently samples posterior PDFs through a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, incorporating the Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm, with automatic step size selection. We apply our approach to synthetic geodetic data simulating deformation of magmatic origin and demonstrate its ability to retrieve known source parameters. We also apply the inversion algorithm to interferometric synthetic aperture radar data measuring co‐seismic displacements for a thrust‐faulting earthquake (2015 Mw 6.4 Pishan earthquake, China) and retrieve optimal source parameters and associated uncertainties. Given its robustness and rapidity in estimating deformation source parameters and uncertainties, our Bayesian framework is capable of taking advantage of real‐time geodetic measurements. Thus, our approach can be applied to geodetic data to study magmatic, tectonic, and other geophysical processes, especially in rapid‐response operational settings (e.g., volcano observatories). Our algorithm is fully implemented in a MATLAB®‐based software package (Geodetic Bayesian Inversion Software) that we make freely available to the scientific community.

Recent large basaltic eruptions began after only minor surface uplift and seismicity, and resulted in caldera subsidence. In contrast, some eruptions at Galápagos Island volcanoes are preceded by prolonged, large amplitude uplift and elevated seismicity. These systems also display long-term intra-caldera uplift, or resurgence. However, a scarcity of observations has obscured the mechanisms underpinning such behaviour. Here we combine a unique multiparametric dataset to show how the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra contributed to caldera resurgence. Magma supply to a shallow reservoir drove 6.5 m of pre-eruptive uplift and seismicity over thirteen years, including an Mw5.4 earthquake that triggered the eruption. Although co-eruptive magma withdrawal resulted in 8.5 m of subsidence, net uplift of the inner-caldera on a trapdoor fault resulted in 1.5 m of permanent resurgence. These observations reveal the importance of intra-caldera faulting in affecting resurgence, and the mechanisms of eruption in the absence of well-developed rift systems.

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Using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements of the surface deformation at Fernandina Volcano, Galápagos (Ecuador), acquired between January 2003 and September 2010, we study the structure and the dynamics of the shallow magmatic system of the volcano. Through the analysis of spatial and temporal variations of the measured line‐of‐sight displacement we identify multiple sources of deformation beneath the summit and the southern flank. At least two sources are considered to represent permanent zones of magma storage given their persistent or recurrent activity. Elastic deformation models indicate the presence of a flat‐topped magma reservoir at ∼1.1 km below sea level and an oblate‐spheroid cavity at ∼4.9 km b.s.l. The two reservoirs are hydraulically connected. This inferred structure of the shallow storage system is in agreement with previous geodetic studies and previous petrological analysis of both subaerial and submarine lavas. The almost eight‐year‐long observation interval provides for the first time geodetic evidence for two subvolcanic lateral intrusions from the central storage system (in December 2006 and August 2007). Subvolcanic lateral intrusions could provide the explanation for enigmatic volcanic events at Fernandina such as the rapid uplift at Punta Espinoza in 1927 and the 1968 caldera collapse without significant eruption.

Resolving changes in topography through time using accurate high‐resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) is key to understanding active volcanic processes. For the first time in a volcanic environment, we utilize very high‐resolution tri‐stereo optical imagery acquired by the Pleiades‐1 satellite constellation and generate a 1 m resolution DEM of Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde—the most active volcano in the Eastern Atlantic region. Point cloud density is increased by a factor of 6.5 compared to conventional stereo imagery, and the number of 1 m2 pixels with no height measurements is reduced by 43%. We use the DEM to quantify topographic changes associated with the 2014–2015 eruption at Fogo. Height differences between the posteruptive Pleiades‐1 DEM and the preeruptive topography from TanDEM‐X give a lava flow volume of 45.83 ± 0.02 × 106 m3, emplaced over an area of 4.8 km2 at a mean rate of 6.8 m3 s−1.

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multiparameter data sets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America and compare these data sets to ground-based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program. This first comparison of multisatellite time series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, noneruptive, pre-eruptive, syneruptive, and posteruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification, and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite-based capabilities and new instruments.

After 20 years of quiescence, Fogo volcano erupted in November 2014. The eruption produced fast‐moving lava flows that traveled for several kilometers and destroyed two villages. This event represents the first episode of significant surface deformation imaged by the new European Space Agency's Sentinel‐1 satellite in its standard acquisition mode, Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans (TOPS), which differs from that of previous synthetic aperture radar (SAR) missions. We perform a Bayesian inversion of Sentinel‐1 TOPS SAR interferograms spanning the eruption and accurately account for variations in the TOPS line‐of‐sight vector when modeling displacements. Our results show that magma ascended beneath the Pico do Fogo cone and then moved laterally toward its southwestern flank, where the eruptive fissure opened. This study provides important insights into the inner workings of Fogo volcano and shows the potential of Sentinel‐1 TOPS interferometry for geophysical (e.g., volcano monitoring) applications.