Thermal, Deformation, and Degassing Remote Sensing Time Series (CE 2000–2017) at the 47 most Active Volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for Volcanic Systems

Reath, K.; Pritchard, M. E.; Poland, Michael P.; Delgado, Francisco; Carn, S. A.; Coppola, Diego; Andrews, B. J.; Ebmeier, S. K.; Rumpf, E.; Henderson, S. T.; Baker, S.; Lundgren, P.; Wright, Robert J.; Biggs, Juliet; Lopez, T. M.; Wauthier, C.; Moruzzi, Samantha A.; Alcott, A.; Wessels, R.; Griswold, Julia P.; Ogburn, S. E.; Loughlin, S. C.; Meyer, Franz J.; Vaughan, G.; Bagnardi, Marco

doi:10.1029/2018jb016199

Cited by 74 publications

(94 citation statements)

References 131 publications

(210 reference statements)

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“…Likewise, satellite‐derived deformation has been shown to be a good indicator of eruption, with a strong correlation between volcanoes that deform and those that erupt (Biggs et al, ). In a study of the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America, Reath et al () found that many eruptions at volcanoes with dense satellite data sets were preceded by thermal, gas, and/or deformation precursors—and in some cases, all three (Figure ). Satellite data can never replace ground‐based instrumentation for reliable, real‐time volcano monitoring, but has demonstrated a capability to inform an understanding of unrest (especially at poorly monitored areas).…”

Section: Short‐ and Intermediate‐term Forecasts Based On Patterns In mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…LOS displacement at Sabancaya is from the TerraSAR‐X satellite, whereas multiple satellites were used to determine LOS displacement over time at Copahue (CSK = Cosmo‐SkyMed, RSAT‐2 = RADARSAT‐2, ALOS‐1 = Advanced Land Observing Satellite‐1, ENVISAT = Environmental Satellite). Modified from Reath et al ().…”

Section: Short‐ and Intermediate‐term Forecasts Based On Patterns In mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

Poland

Anderson

2020

JGR Solid Earth

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A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long-term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter-term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations-particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks-should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

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Section: Short‐ and Intermediate‐term Forecasts Based On Patterns In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Short‐ and Intermediate‐term Forecasts Based On Patterns In mentioning

confidence: 99%

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

Poland

Anderson

2020

JGR Solid Earth

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“…Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems shaded light blue background. For further information about these tables, see Reath, Pritchard, Poland et al, (2019). which describes the limitations of the data and how they were collected, plotted, and used to characterize volcanic behavior and infer processes at several volcanoes.…”

Section: 1029/2019gc008494mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The time series data presented by Reath, Pritchard, Poland, et al (2019) are classified into the various conceptual models proposed in section 2.1. Specific examples are provided in section 3 and Figures S1 to S47 in the supporting information.…”

Section: Classification Of Satellite Monitoring Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using Conceptual Models to Relate Multiparameter Satellite Data to Subsurface Volcanic Processes in Latin America

Reath

Pritchard

Biggs

et al. 2020

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Satellite data have been extensively used to identify volcanic behavior. However, the physical subsurface processes causing any individual manifestation of activity can be ambiguous. We propose a classification scheme for the cause of unrest that simultaneously considers three multiparameter satellite observations. The scheme is based on characteristics of the volcanic system (open, closed, and eruptive) and unrest mechanisms (intrusion, evolution, and withdrawal) occurring at shallow depths in the volcanic system. We applied these models to satellite observations acquired at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America. Of the volcanoes studied, 44 had a robust enough dataset for classification and were clustered into 4 groups and 10 subgroups with common behavioral characteristics. By identifying that these volcanoes can be clustered into a number of groupings significantly less than the number of volcanoes, we have demonstrated that commonalities in behavior patterns exist among diverse volcanic systems. Identifying volcanoes with similar characteristics underpins the use of past observations at one volcano to forecast activity at another and diverges from typical volcanic groupings, which are focused on geologic parameters (i.e., composition, volcano type, and tectonic setting). Based on satellite data alone, we have identified preeruptive intrusion prior to 15 eruptions at 12 different volcanoes, magma evolution prior to 18 eruptions at 13 volcanoes, and magma withdrawal at 3 eruptions and 3 volcanoes. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution are needed to make these relations robust. This classification scheme provides a framework for future automated clustering of volcanoes.

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Volcanology: The Crucial Contribution of Surface Displacement Measurements from Space for Understanding and Monitoring Volcanoes

Pinel

Albino

Bato

et al. 2022

Surface Displacement Measurement From Remote Sensing Images

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Thermal, Deformation, and Degassing Remote Sensing Time Series (CE 2000–2017) at the 47 most Active Volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for Volcanic Systems

Cited by 74 publications

References 131 publications

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

Partly Cloudy With a Chance of Lava Flows: Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions in the Twenty‐First Century

Using Conceptual Models to Relate Multiparameter Satellite Data to Subsurface Volcanic Processes in Latin America

Volcanology: The Crucial Contribution of Surface Displacement Measurements from Space for Understanding and Monitoring Volcanoes

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