In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 kilometers. A 4 May earthquake [moment magnitude (Mw) 6.9] produced ~5 meters of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 cubic meters per second, eventually covering 35.5 square kilometers. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent toMw4.7 to 5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent—about 0.8 cubic kilometers. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earth’s most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8–cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcano’s summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.

[1] We present a model of effusive silicic volcanic eruptions which relates magma chamber and conduit physics to time-dependent data sets, including ground deformation and extrusion rate. The model involves a deflating chamber which supplies Newtonian magma through a cylindrical conduit. Solidification is approximated as occurring at fixed depth, producing a solid plug that slips along its margins with rate-dependent friction. Changes in tractions acting on the chamber and conduit walls are used to compute surface deformations. Given appropriate material properties and initial conditions, the model predicts the full evolution of an eruption, allowing us to examine the dependence of observables on initial chamber volume, overpressure, and volatile content. Employing multiple data sets in combination with a physics-based model allows for better constraints on these parameters than is possible using kinematic idealizations. Modeling posteruptive deformation provides an improved constraint on the rate of influx into the magma chamber from deeper sources. We compare numerical results to analytical approximations and to data from the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens. For nominal parameters the balance between magma chamber pressure and frictional resistance of the solid plug controls the evolution of the eruption, with little contribution from the fluid magma below the idealized crystallization depth. While rate-dependent plug friction influences the timedependent evolution of the eruption, it has no control on the final chamber pressure or extruded volume.Citation: Anderson, K., and P. Segall (2011), Physics-based models of ground deformation and extrusion rate at effusively erupting volcanoes,