The market share of Tietê–Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though an expressive accident history is available, a frequentist approach is not suitable due to differences between current operational conditions and those met in the past. Therefore, a subjective assessment is an option as allows for working independently of the historical data, thus delivering more reliable results. In this context, this article proposes a methodology for assessing the probability of occurrence of undesired events based on expert opinion combined with fuzzy analysis. This methodology defines a criterion to weighting the experts and, using the fuzzy logic, evaluates the similarities among the experts’ beliefs to be used in the aggregation process before the defuzzification that quantifies the probability of occurrence of the events based on the experts’ opinion. Moreover, the proposed methodology is applied to the real case of the TPIW and the results obtained from the elicited experts are compared with a frequentist approach evidencing the impact on the results when considering different interpretations of the probability.
Although factual experience of developing offshore salt cavern to CO2 disposal in ultra-deep water is unprecedent, the theme has been gaining relevant attention in Brazil, fueled by the challenges imposed by oil production on the Pre-Salt reservoirs. It is true that some authors have conducted researches related to CO2 disposal on onshore salt caverns, but most of the works regarding salt cavern are related to onshore constructions that are used as methane store to supplement gas consumption during the peak energy demands that historically occurs during the winter season in the North hemisphere. This paper aims to contribute for CO2 disposal research, describing the results obtained from the application of a Preliminary Risk Analysis (PRA) during the conceptual engineering phase of an offshore salt cavern to store CO2 in Brazilian Pre-Salt.
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