The concept of risk is well known in the energy sector. It is normally recognized when it comes to price and cost forecasting, annual production calculation, or evaluating project lifetime. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that the quantitative evaluation of risk is usually difficult. The discount rate is the only parameter reflecting risk in the discounted cash flow analysis. Therefore, knowledge of the discount rate along with the major components affecting its level is of fundamental significance for making investment decisions, capital budgeting, and project management. By referring to the standard coal-fired power generation projects the authors of the paper tackle the analysis of the composition of discount rate for onshore wind farm technologies in the Polish conditions. The study was carried out on the basis of a typical (hypothetical) onshore wind farm project assessed at the feasibility stage. To enable comparisons and discussions, it was assumed that the best reference point for such purposes is the real risk-adjusted discount rate, RADR, after-tax, in all equity evaluations (the ‘bare bones’ assumption); that is because such a rate reflects the inherent characteristics of the project risk. The study methodology involves the a priori application of the discount rate level and subsequently—in an analytical way—calculation of its individual components. The starting point for the analysis of the RADR’s composition was the definition of risk, understood as the product of uncertainty and consequences. Then, the risk factors were adopted and level of uncertainty assessed. Subsequently, using the classical sensitivity analysis of IRR, the consequences (as slopes of sensitivity lines) were calculated. Consequently, risk portions in percentage forms were received. Eventually, relative risks and risk components within cost of equity were assessed. Apart from the characteristics of the discount rate at the feasibility stage, in the discussion section the study was supplemented with an analogous analysis of the project’s cost of equity at the operating stage.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in electricity demand and, consequently, electricity consumption profiles. Given the rapid changes in energy prices, it is significant from the perspective of energy companies, and forecasting consumed energy volume. A necessity for accurate energy volume planning forces the need for analyzing consumers’ behaviors during the pandemic, especially under lockdowns, to prepare for the possibility of another pandemic wave. Many business clients analyzed in the paper are economic entities functioning in sectors under restrictions. That is why analyzing the pandemic’s impact on the change in energy consumption profiles and volume of these entities is particularly meaningful. The article analyzes the pandemic and restrictions’ impact on the total change of energy consumption volume and demand profiles. The analysis was conducted basing on data collected from a Polish energy trading and sales company. It focused on the energy consumption of its corporate clients. Analyzed data included aggregated energy consumption volumes for all company’s customers and key groups of economic entities under restrictions. The analysis demonstrates the influence of pandemic restrictions on energy consumption in the group of business clients. Significant differences are observable among various sectors of the economy. The research proves that the largest drops in energy consumption are related to shopping centers and offices. Altogether, the restrictions have caused a 15–23% energy consumption drop during the first lockdown and a maximum 11% during the second against expected values.
Investments in the development of the district heating system require a thorough analysis of the technical, economic, and legal aspects. Regarding the technical and economic context, a mathematical model of the district heating system has been proposed. It optimizes both the technical and economic aspects of the function and development of a district heating system. To deal with non-linearities, the developed linear programming model is divided into three phases: flow, thermal, and pressure. Therein, non-linear dependencies are calculated between the linear optimization phases. This paper presents the main assumptions and equations that were used to calculate the parameters of the heating system, along with the optimal level of heat production, the flow rate of the heating medium in the heat nodes and edges of the network graph, the heat, power, and temperature losses at each edge, and the purchase costs of heat and its transmission. The operation of the model was tested on a real-world district heating system. The case study results confirm that the model is effective and can be used in decision support. The economic results of the model, before the calibration process, were 3.6% different from historical values. After the calibration process, they were very similar to the real data—all percentage deviations were within 1%.
This paper presents a mathematical model of the heat and mass transfer processes for a rotary-spray honey dehydrator with a heat pump and a closed air circuit. An analytical calculation model, based on the energy balance equations of the dehydrator and heat pump, was used to model the transient dehydration process of honey in a dehydrator. The presented article includes a different approach to modelling both the dryer and the heat pump assisting the drying process. The novel quality of this study lies in the use of original equations to determine the heat and mass transfer coefficients between honey and air and using an actual model of a cooling unit to model the honey dehydration process. The experimentally verified calculation algorithm enables an analysis of the effects of air flow rate, mixer rotation speed, and cooling unit power on the efficiency of the drying process. The dehydrator calculation model was used to minimize the drying time by selecting the optimal evaporative temperature values of the cooling unit. For fixed mixer speed and air flow rates, optimal values of evaporation temperatures allow for 8–13% reduction in honey drying time and an increase in the specific moisture extraction rate (SMER) by 4–32%.
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