In perinatally infected infants, HIV-1 RNA levels are high and decline only slowly during the first two years of life. Infants with very high viral loads in the first months of life are at increased risk for a rapid progression of disease, which suggests that early treatment with antiretroviral agents may be indicated for these infants.

In multivariate analyses, a number of specific measures of respiratory care practice during the first postnatal week were associated with the risk of a very low birth weight infant developing CLD. However, after adjusting for baseline risk, most of the increased risk of CLD among very low birth weight infants hospitalized at 2 Boston NICUs, compared with those at Babies' Hospital, was explained simply by the initiation of mechanical ventilation.

Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens to reverse recent reductions in global tuberculosis (TB) incidence. Although children under 15 years of age constitute >25% of the worldwide population, the global incidence of MDR-TB disease in children has never been quantified. Methods Our approach for estimating regional and global annual incidence of MDR-TB in children required development of two models: one to estimate the setting-specific risk of MDR-TB among child TB cases, and a second to estimate the setting-specific incidence of TB disease in children. The model for MDR-TB risk among children with TB required a systematic literature review. We multiplied the setting-specific estimates of MDR-TB risk and TB incidence to estimate regional and global incidence of MDR-TB disease in children in 2010. Findings We identified 3,403 papers, of which 97 studies met inclusion criteria for the systematic review of MDR-TB risk. Thirty-one studies reported the risk of MDR-TB among both children and treatment-naïve adults with TB and were used for evaluating the linear association between MDR-TB risk in these two patient groups. We found that the setting-specific risk of MDR-TB was nearly identical in children and treatment-naïve adults with TB, consistent with the assertion that MDR-TB in both groups reflects the local risk of transmitted MDR-TB. Applying these calculated risks, we estimated that around 1,000,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 938,000 – 1,055,000) children developed TB disease in 2010, among whom 32,000 (95% Confidence Interval: 26,000 – 39,000) had MDR-TB. Interpretation Our estimates highlight a massive detection gap for children with TB and MDR-TB disease. Future estimates can be refined as more and better TB data and new diagnostic tools become available.

Echolucent images (EL) of cerebral white matter, seen on cranial ultrasonographic scans of very low birth weight newborns, predict motor and cognitive limitations. We tested the hypothesis that markers of maternal and feto-placental infection were associated with risks of both early (diagnosed at a median age of 7 d) and late (median age = 21 d) EL in a multi-center cohort of 1078 infants <1500 x g. Maternal infection was indicated by fever, leukocytosis, and receipt of antibiotic; fetoplacental inflammation was indicated by the presence of fetal vasculitis (i.e. of the placental chorionic plate or the umbilical cord). The effect of membrane inflammation was also assessed. All analyses were performed separately in infants born within 1 h of membrane rupture (n = 537), or after a longer interval (n = 541), to determine whether infection markers have different effects in infants who are unlikely to have experienced ascending amniotic sac infection as a consequence of membrane rupture. Placental membrane inflammation by itself was not associated with risk of EL at any time. The risks of both early and late EL were substantially increased in infants with fetal vasculitis, but the association with early EL was found only in infants born > or =1 after membrane rupture and who had membrane inflammation (adjusted OR not calculable), whereas the association of fetal vasculitis with late EL was seen only in infants born <1 h after membrane rupture (OR = 10.8; p = 0.05). Maternal receipt of antibiotic in the 24 h just before delivery was associated with late EL only if delivery occurred <1 h after membrane rupture (OR = 6.9; p = 0.01). Indicators of maternal infection and of a fetal inflammatory response are strongly and independently associated with EL, particularly late EL.

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Background  The United States was the second country to have a major outbreak of novel influenza A/H1N1 in what has become a new pandemic. Appropriate public health responses to this pandemic depend in part on early estimates of key epidemiological parameters of the virus in defined populations. Methods  We use a likelihood‐based method to estimate the basic reproductive number (R 0) and serial interval using individual level U.S. data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). We adjust for missing dates of illness and changes in case ascertainment. Using prior estimates for the serial interval we also estimate the reproductive number only. Results  Using the raw CDC data, we estimate the reproductive number to be between 2·2 and 2·3 and the mean of the serial interval (μ) between 2·5 and 2·6 days. After adjustment for increased case ascertainment our estimates change to 1·7 to 1·8 for R 0 and 2·2 to 2·3 days for μ. In a sensitivity analysis making use of previous estimates of the mean of the serial interval, both for this epidemic (μ = 1·91 days) and for seasonal influenza (μ = 3·6 days), we estimate the reproductive number at 1·5 to 3·1. Conclusions  With adjustments for data imperfections we obtain useful estimates of key epidemiological parameters for the current influenza H1N1 outbreak in the United States. Estimates that adjust for suspected increases in reporting suggest that substantial reductions in the spread of this epidemic may be achievable with aggressive control measures, while sensitivity analyses suggest the possibility that even such measures would have limited effect in reducing total attack rates.

SUMMARY We present a method for the simultaneous estimation of the basic reproductive number, R0, and the serial interval for infectious disease epidemics, using readily available surveillance data. These estimates can be obtained in real time to inform an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. We show how this methodology, in its most simple case, is related to a branching process and describe similarities between the two that allow us to draw parallels which enable us to understand some of the theoretical properties of our estimators. We provide simulation results that illustrate the efficacy of the method for estimating R0 and the serial interval in real time. Finally, we implement our proposed method with data from three infectious disease outbreaks.

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