Abstract. We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a
sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one
subsystem changes the background conditions for another subsystem. A
mathematical framework of elementary deterministic cascading tipping points
in autonomous dynamical systems is presented containing the double-fold,
fold–Hopf, Hopf–fold and double-Hopf as the most generic cases. Statistical
indicators which can be used as early warning indicators of cascading tipping
events in stochastic, non-stationary systems are suggested. The concept of
cascading tipping is illustrated through a conceptual model of the coupled
North Atlantic Ocean – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system,
demonstrating the possibility of such cascading events in the climate system.
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