Using the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) and Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) for hospital discharges we evaluated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) surveillance and estimated real PTB incidence and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coinfection in Seville in 1998. In addition, we assessed the sensitivity and the positive predictive value (PPV) of the surveillance system. Real incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was estimated by the capture-recapture method. In 1998, the province of Seville reported 225 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis to the NNDSS, an incidence of 13.2 per 100,000 population. Of the 225 cases reported, 18.2% presented with HIV coinfection, while a total of 194 had confirmed diagnoses. The MBDS accounted for 106 new cases. Of these, 24.8% presented with HIV coinfection and were 58% less likely to be reported to the NNDSS (25-76%, p = 0.001). Applying the capture-recapture method, 426 cases were estimated, an overall incidence of 25.6 per 100,000 population (21.5-28.8). Completeness for each source was similar (47%), and for both jointly was 72.7%. The NNDSS had a sensitivity of 65.3% and a PPV of 89.3%. In conclusion, the NNDSS underestimates PTB and PTB-HIV coinfection in Seville. The high incidence observed in young adults suggests a high degree of tuberculosis endemicity. Hospital records provide a readily accessible, low-cost means of estimating disease incidence.
Background In human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–positive adults, low CD4 cell counts despite fully suppressed HIV-1 RNA on antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We assessed the prevalence and outcomes of poor immune response (PIR) in children receiving suppressive ART. Methods Sixteen cohorts from the European Pregnancy and Paediatric HIV Cohort Collaboration (EPPICC) contributed data. Children <18 years at ART initiation, with sustained viral suppression (VS) (≤400 copies/mL) for ≥1 year were included. The prevalence of PIR (defined as World Health Organization advanced/severe immunosuppression for age) at 1 year of VS was described. Factors associated with PIR were assessed using logistic regression. Rates of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death on suppressive ART were calculated by PIR status. Results Of 2318 children included, median age was 6.4 years and 68% had advanced/severe immunosuppression at ART initiation. At 1 year of VS, 12% had PIR. In multivariable analysis, PIR was associated with older age and worse immunological stage at ART start, hepatitis B coinfection, and residing in Thailand (all P ≤ .03). Rates of AIDS/death (95% confidence interval) per 100 000 person-years were 1052 (547, 2022) among PIR versus 261 (166, 409) among immune responders; rate ratio of 4.04 (1.83, 8.92; P < .001). Conclusions One in eight children in our cohort experienced PIR despite sustained VS. While the overall rate of AIDS/death was low, children with PIR had a 4-fold increase in risk of event as compared with immune responders.
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