SummaryBackgroundAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.MethodsWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FindingsWe analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.InterpretationMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

ObjectiveOur goal was to quantify the short-term effects of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on respiratory health of asthmatic children from published panel studies, and to investigate the influence of study and population characteristics as effect modifiers.Data extractionAfter a systematic literature review, we extracted quantitative estimates of the association of PM10 and/or NO2 with respiratory symptoms and peak expiratory flow (PEF). Combined effect estimates for an increase of 10 μg/m3 were calculated by random effects meta-analysis for all studies and for different strata defined by study characteristics. The effect of publication bias was investigated with Egger’s and Begg’s tests and “trim-and-fill” analyses.Data synthesisWe identified 36 studies; 14 were part of the European Pollution Effects on Asthmatic Children in Europe (PEACE) study. Adverse associations of PM10 with asthma symptoms were statistically significant [odds ratio (OR) = 1.028; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.006–1.051]. There were also associations, although not statistically significant, of PM10 with cough (OR = 1.012; 95% CI, 0.997–1.026) and on PEF (decrease of −0.082 L/min; 95% CI, −0.214 to 0.050). NO2 had statistically significant associations with asthma symptoms in the overall analysis considering all possible lags (OR = 1.031; 95% CI, 1.001–1.062), but not when we evaluated only the 0–1 lag. We found no publication bias, although it appeared when excluding the PEACE studies. When we applied the trim-and-fill method to the data set without the PEACE studies, the results were similar to the overall estimates from all studies. There was an indication for stronger PM10 associations for studies conducted in summer, outside of Europe, with longer lags, and in locations with higher NO2 concentrations.ConclusionsWe found clear evidence of effects of PM10 on the occurrence of asthma symptom episodes, and to a lesser extent on cough and PEF. The results for NO2 are more difficult to interpret because they depend on the lag times examined. There was an indication of effect modification by several study conditions.

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges. @ERSpublications Climate change, extreme weather events and air pollution affect respiratory health: the evidence reviewed

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The results indicate that the epidemiologic features of asthma and allergies in Italy are changing rapidly, although the causes are still uncertain.

Objectives:Adverse effects have been reported of prenatal and/or postnatal passive exposure to smoking on children’s health. Uncertainties remain about the relative importance of smoking at different periods in the child’s life. We investigate this in a pooled analysis, on 53 879 children from 12 cross-sectional studies—components of the PATY study (Pollution And The Young).Methods:Effects were estimated, within each study, of three exposures: mother smoked during pregnancy, parental smoking in the first two years, current parental smoking. Outcomes were: wheeze, asthma, “woken by wheeze”, bronchitis, nocturnal cough, morning cough, “sensitivity to inhaled allergens” and hay fever. Logistic regressions were used, controlling for individual risk factors and study area. Heterogeneity between study-specific results, and mean effects (allowing for heterogeneity) were estimated using meta-analytical tools.Results:There was strong evidence linking parental smoking to wheeze, asthma, bronchitis and nocturnal cough, with mean odds ratios all around 1.15, with independent effects of prenatal and postnatal exposures for most associations.Conclusions:Adverse effects of both pre- and postnatal parental smoking on children’s respiratory health were confirmed. Asthma was most strongly associated with maternal smoking during pregnancy, but postnatal exposure showed independent associations with a range of other respiratory symptoms. All tobacco smoke exposure has serious consequences for children’s respiratory health and needs to be reduced urgently.

Background Italy was the first country outside China to experience the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant health burden. This study presents an analysis of the excess mortality across the 107 Italian provinces, stratified by sex, age group and period of the outbreak. Methods The analysis was performed using a two-stage interrupted time-series design using daily mortality data for the period January 2015–May 2020. In the first stage, we performed province-level quasi-Poisson regression models, with smooth functions to define a baseline risk while accounting for trends and weather conditions and to flexibly estimate the variation in excess risk during the outbreak. Estimates were pooled in the second stage using a mixed-effects multivariate meta-analysis. Results In the period 15 February–15 May 2020, we estimated an excess of 47 490 [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCIs): 43 984 to 50 362] deaths in Italy, corresponding to an increase of 29.5% (95% eCI: 26.8 to 31.9%) from the expected mortality. The analysis indicates a strong geographical pattern, with the majority of excess deaths occurring in northern regions, where few provinces experienced increases up to 800% during the peak in late March. There were differences by sex, age and area both in the overall impact and in its temporal distribution. Conclusion This study offers a detailed picture of excess mortality during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. The strong geographical and temporal patterns can be related to the implementation of lockdown policies and multiple direct and indirect pathways in mortality risk.