This paper uses a set of plausible long-run identifying restrictions on a three-variable system, including output growth, real wage growth, and the unemployment rate, to isolate three independent structural shocks which drive¯uctuations in those variables in a sample of 16 OECD countries during 1950±96. These shocks are interpreted as aggregate demand, productivity, and labour supply disturbances. As a by-product of the previous analysis, the cyclical behaviour of real wages in response to a demand shock is re-examined and two indices of real wage rigidity are derived.
El objetivo de este artículo es cuantificar para la economía española la evolución futura del gasto en pensiones de jubilación contributivas en el horizonte 2002-2050. Para ello se especifica un modelo en el que dicho gasto es función de la pensión media de las altas, de las bajas, de los pensionistas comunes, del número de pensionistas en cada uno de estos colectivos y del complemento de garantía de mínimos. La descomposición del gasto total en pensiones de jubilación en estos tres grupos permite analizar con más detalle cuál de ellos contribuirá en mayor medida a determinar la evolución futura del gasto, así como simular con mayor precisión el efecto de cambios legislativos.
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