Conventional markets can underprovide ecosystem services. Deliberate creation of a market for ecosystem services [e.g., a payments for ecosystem services (PES) scheme] can close the gap. The new ecosystem service market alters behaviors and quantities of ecosystem service provided and reveals prices for the ecosystems service: a market-clearing equilibrium. Assessing the potential for PES programs, which often act as ecological infrastructure investment mechanisms, requires forecasting the market-clearing equilibrium. Forecasting the equilibrium is complicated, especially at relevant social and ecological scales. It requires greater disciplinary integration than valuing ecosystem services or computing the marginal cost of making a land-use change to produce a service. We conduct anex antebenefit–cost assessment and forecast market-clearing prices and quantities for ecological infrastructure investment contracts in the Panama Canal Watershed. The Panama Canal Authority could offer contracts to private farmers to change land use to increase dry-season water flow and reduce sedimentation. A feasible voluntary contracting system yields a small program of about 1,840 ha of land conversion in a 279,000-ha watershed and generates a 4.9 benefit–cost ratio. Physical and social constraints limit market supply and scalability. Service delays, caused by lags between the time payments must be made and the time services stemming from ecosystem change are realized, hinder program feasibility. Targeting opportunities raise the benefit–cost ratio but reduce the hectares likely to be converted. We compare and contrast our results with prior state-of-the-art assessments on this system.

In this paper, we introduce a hydro-economic modeling framework for the management of groundwater resources that are used for irrigated agricultural production. The model, MOD$$AT, can be used to study the costs of aquifer depletion and the net benefits of specific aquifer management policies. MOD$$AT is composed of three components, namely, an economic component, a hydrologic component and an agronomic component. A main goal of this paper is to introduce the hydro-economic model and describe how it can be transferable to different contexts. With this objective in mind, we describe model components step-by-step so that the process of integration can be replicated easily. We then apply the model to study the efficacy of a pumping tax in Finney County, Kansas, USA, which overlies the High Plains Aquifer. The results show that a pumping tax results in an increase in average well capacities in the county over time relative to the status quo, which increases the average profitability of agricultural production. However, the increase in profitability is not uniform across producers and some producers gain more than others under the tax.

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and floods are predicted to change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase. These disasters may represent sources of information for individuals as they update their beliefs related to climate change. Using a dataset that includes climate beliefs of respondents, we examine the effect of natural disasters on climate change beliefs and find that hurricanes significantly increase the probability that survey respondents from a given county believe that climate change is occurring and that it is human caused. We find that past experience with certain types of natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes) impacts beliefs regarding whether climate change is occurring and if it is human caused. The research contributes to the literature evaluating climate change attitudes by using spatially disaggregate information on climate change beliefs and exposure to a set of natural disasters over time. Characterizing beliefs and attitudes toward climate change and related policies is important since these beliefs are a determinant of individual adaptation and support for policies related to reducing carbon emissions.

No abstract