Will the practice of collecting wild honey wearing no clothes become a widespread practice in Zimbabwe? Or will beekeeping take over as the main way that people acquire honey? Both practices impact on forest resources; how can the foresters influence the uptake of these ideas? This paper describes an exploratory modelling study investigating how social network patterns affect the way ideas spread around communities. It concludes that increasing the density of social networks increases the spread of successful ideas whilst speeding the loss of ideas with no competitive advantage. Some different kinds of competitive advantage are explored in the context of forest management and rural extension. 1
ZimFlores (version 4) is the outcome of a participatory modelling process and seeks to provide a shared factual basis for exploring land-use options for the communal lands surrounding the Mafungautsi forest. The ZimFlores experience underscores the importance of a sharing a common problem and a common location in which all participants have an interest. Participatory modelling has proved an effective way to consolidate a diverse body of knowledge and make it accessible. Results demonstrate the importance of model outputs that are diagnostic, and which offer insights into the issues under consideration. 1
The FLORES simulation model aims to capture the interactions between rural communities living at the forest margin and the resources that they depend upon, in order to provide decision-makers with a tool that they can use to explore the consequences of alternative policy options. A key component of the model is simulating how decision-making agents within the system (individuals, households and the whole village) go about making their decisions. The model presented here is based on an anthropological description of the rules and relationships that people use, rather than on the assumption that people behave in an economically optimal fashion. The approach addresses both short-term decision-making (primarily the allocation of labour to various activities on a weekly basis), and long-term strategic land-use planning, taking into account the variety of tenure and inheritance patterns that operate in real communities. The decision-making sub-model has been implemented in the Rantau Pandan (Sumatra) version of FLORES, using the Simile modelling environment.
Participatory modelling can be a useful process to encourage critical examination of livelihood options and foster sustainable natural resource use through enhanced social learning, collective action and mobilization. The broom-grass group in the Mafungautsi Forest Reserve serves as a case study of the process and outcomes of such participatory modelling. Innovative group facilitation methods enhanced participation in the modelling process. The modelling process complements broader efforts to achieve higher levels of adaptive collaborative management.
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