Results are presented from an isopycnic coordinate model of ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea, focusing on the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) to the inner continental shelf around Pine Island Bay. The warmest waters to reach this region are channeled through a submarine trough, accessed via bathymetric irregularities along the shelf break. Temporal variability in the influx of CDW is related to regional wind forcing. Easterly winds over the shelf edge change to westerlies when the Amundsen Sea Low migrates west and south in winter/spring. This drives seasonal on‐shelf flow, while inter‐annual changes in the wind forcing lead to inflow variability on a decadal timescale. A modelled period of warming following low CDW influx in the late 1980's and early 1990's coincides with a period of observed thinning and acceleration of Pine Island Glacier.

Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding-line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). Perturbation experiments specifying spatial variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Steady-state grounding-line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Resolving grounding lines requires inclusion of membrane stresses, a sufficiently small grid size (<500 m), or subgrid interpolation of the grounding line. The latter still requires nominal grid sizes of <5 km. For larger grid spacings, appropriate parameterizations for ice flux may be imposed at the grounding line, but the short-time transient behaviour is then incorrect and different from models that do not incorporate grounding-line parameterizations. The numerical error associated with predicting grounding-line motion can be reduced significantly below the errors associated with parameter ignorance and uncertainties in future scenarios.

[1] Subglacial Lake Ellsworth has been proposed as a candidate for direct measurement and sampling, to identify microbial life and extract sedimentary climate records. We present a detailed characterization of the physiography of this subglacial lake from geophysical surveys, allowing bathymetry and geomorphic setting to be established. Lake Ellsworth is 14.7 km × 3.1 km with an area of 28.9 km 2 . Lake depth increases downlake from 52 m to 156 m, with a water body volume of 1.37 km 3 . The ice thickness suggests an unusual thermodynamic characteristic, with the critical pressure boundary intersecting the lake. Numerical modeling of water circulation has allowed accretion of basal ice to be estimated. We collate this physiographic and modeling information to confirm that Lake Ellsworth is ideal for direct access and propose an optimal drill site. The likelihood of dissolved gas exchange between the lake and the borehole is also assessed. Citation:

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the major contributor to global sea level rise in the Last Interglacial (LIG) and potentially in the future. Exposed fossil reef terraces suggest sea levels in excess of 7 m in the last warm era, of which probably not much more than 2 m are considered to originate from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We simulate the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the LIG with a 3‐D thermomechanical ice sheet model forced by an atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that high LIG sea levels cannot be reproduced with the atmosphere‐ocean forcing delivered by current AOGCMs. However, when taking reconstructed Southern Ocean temperature anomalies of several degrees, sensitivity studies indicate a Southern Ocean temperature anomaly threshold for total WAIS collapse of 2–3°C, accounting for a sea level rise of 3–4 m during the LIG. Potential future Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics range from a moderate retreat to a complete collapse, depending on rate and amplitude of warming.

No abstract

Lake Vostok, isolated from direct exchange with the atmosphere by about 4 km of ice for millions of years, provides a unique environment. This inaccessibility raises the importance of numerical models to investigate the physical conditions within the lake. Using a three-dimensional numerical model and the best available geometry, we test different parameter settings to define a standard model configuration suitable for studying flow in this subglacial lake. From our model runs we find a baroclinic circulation within the lake that splits into three different parts: Along a topographic ridge in the northern part of Lake Vostok, bottom water masses are transported eastward, diverging away from the ridge. In the lake's surface layer, the flow in these two vertical overturning cells has opposite directions. In the southern part of the lake, where freezing occurs across about 3,500 km 2 , two opposing gyres split the water column vertically. The general flow is stronger in the southern basin with horizontal velocities in the order of 1 mm/s. The strongest upwelling, found in the eastern part of this basin, is about 25 µm/s. We estimate the lower limit of the overturning timescale to be about 2.5 years vertically and 8.6 years horizontally. The basal mass loss of ice from the ice sheet floating on the lake is 5.6 mm/year (equivalent to a fresh water flux of 2.78 m 3 /s, or a basal ice loss of 0.09 km 3 /year). This imbalance indicates either a constant growth of the lake or its continuous (or periodical) discharge into a subglacial drainage system.

Abstract. Glaciers and ice caps exhibit currently the largest cryospheric contributions to sea level rise. Modelling the dynamics and mass balance of the major ice sheets is therefore an important issue to investigate the current state and the future response of the cryosphere in response to changing environmental conditions, namely global warming. This requires a powerful, easy-to-use, versatile multi-approximation ice dynamics model. Based on the well-known and established ice sheet model of Pattyn (2003) we develop the modular multi-approximation thermomechanic ice model RIMBAY, in which we improve the original version in several aspects like a shallow ice-shallow shelf coupler and a full 3D-groundingline migration scheme based on Schoof's (2007) heuristic analytical approach. We summarise the full Stokes equations and several approximations implemented within this model and we describe the different numerical discretisations. The results are cross-validated against previous publications dealing with ice modelling, and some additional artificial set-ups demonstrate the robustness of the different solvers and their internal coupling. RIMBAY is designed for an easy adaption to new scientific issues. Hence, we demonstrate in very different set-ups the applicability and functionality of RIMBAY in Earth system science in general and ice modelling in particular.

[1] We use a primitive equation Ocean General Circulation Model to simulate the ocean circulation regime in the Eastern Weddell Sea. The computer model ROMBAX (Revisited Ocean Model based on Bryan And Cox) is an improved version of an earlier ocean model, which has been developed to allow the simulation of the flow regime in ice shelf covered regions. The Eastern Weddell Ice Shelf (EWIS) region is of particular importance because of its narrow continental shelf and its location at the inflow of water masses from the east into the southern Weddell Sea. We have compared the simulated flow pattern and water properties in the EWIS region with the available sparse observations. While the general observed structure of temperature and salinity is reproduced, the model tends to overestimate the on-shore flow of warm deep waters. This discrepancy is not large enough to seriously influence the ice shelfocean interaction, which is in good agreement with estimates based on field observations. The mean net melt rate is found to be 0.88 m yr À1 (2.1 mSv) and has a strong seasonal cycle. Sensitivity studies with different ice shelf configurations (no melting, no ice shelf, closed cavity) show strong impacts on the water mass properties in the EWIS region, with up to 0.7°C difference in temperature and 0.05 in salinity relative to the control run. Our results suggest that the EWIS region is of substantial importance to water mass preconditioning and formation in the Weddell Sea, although no deep or bottom water formation occurs in the eastern Weddell Sea directly.