Competition is an important biotic interaction that influences survival and reproduction. While competition on ecological timescales has received great attention, little is known about competition on evolutionary timescales. Do competitive abilities change over hundreds of thousands to millions of years? Can we predict competitive outcomes using phenotypic traits? How much do traits that confer competitive advantage and competitive outcomes change? Here we show, using communities of encrusting marine bryozoans spanning more than 2 million years, that size is a significant determinant of overgrowth outcomes: colonies with larger zooids tend to overgrow colonies with smaller zooids. We also detected temporally coordinated changes in average zooid sizes, suggesting that different species responded to a common external driver. Although species-specific average zooid sizes change over evolutionary timescales, species-specific competitive abilities seem relatively stable, suggesting that traits other than zooid size also control overgrowth outcomes and/or that evolutionary constraints are involved.

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The Southern Ocean is showing one of the most rapid responses to human-induced global change, thus acting as a sentinel of the effects on marine species and ecosystems. Ocean warming and acidification are already impacting benthic species with carbonate skeletons, but the magnitude of these changes to species and ecosystems remains largely unknown. Here we provide the largest carbonate mineralogical dataset to date for Southern Ocean bryozoans, which are diverse, abundant and important as carbonate producers, thus making them excellent for monitoring the effects of ocean warming and acidification. To improve our understanding of how bryozoans might respond to ocean warming and acidification, we assess latitudinal and seafloor temperature patterns of skeletal mineralogy using bryozoan species occurrences together with temperature data for the first time. Our findings, combining new mineralogical data with published data from warmer regions, show that the proportions of high-Mg calcite and bimineralic species increase significantly towards lower latitudes and with decreasing seawater temperature. These patterns are consistent with the hypothesis that seawater temperature is likely a significant driver of variations in bryozoan mineralogy at a global scale.

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