Symptomatic cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease has been the standard endpoint for clinical trials in organ transplant recipients. Viral load may be a more relevant endpoint due to low frequency of disease. We performed a meta-analysis and systematic review of the literature. We found several lines of evidence to support the validity of viral load as an appropriate surrogate end-point, including the following: (1) viral loads in CMV disease are significantly greater than in asymptomatic viremia (odds ratio, 9.3 95% confidence interval, 4.6-19.3); (2) kinetics of viral replication are strongly associated with progression to disease; (3) pooled incidence of CMV viremia and disease is significantly lower during prophylaxis compared with the full patient follow-up period (viremia incidence: 3.2% vs 34.3%; P < .001) (disease incidence: 1.1% vs 13.0%; P < .001); (4) treatment of viremia prevented disease; and (5) viral load decline correlated with symptom resolution. Based on the analysis, we conclude that CMV load is an appropriate surrogate endpoint for CMV trials in organ transplant recipients.
Recurrent fibrosis after liver transplantation (LT) impacts on long-term graft and patient survival. We performed a meta-analysis to compare the accuracy of non-invasive methods to diagnose significant recurrent fibrosis (stage F2-F4) following LT. Studies comparing serum fibrosis biomarkers, namely AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis score 4 (FIB-4), or transient elastography (TE) with liver biopsy in LT recipients were systematically identified through electronic databases. In the meta-analysis, we calculated the weighted pooled odds ratio and used a fixed effect model, as there was no significant heterogeneity between studies. Eight studies were included for APRI, four for FIB-4, and twelve for TE. The mean prevalence of significant liver fibrosis was 37.4%. The summary odds ratio was significantly higher for TE (21.17, 95% CI confidence interval 14.10–31.77, p = 1X10-30) as compared to APRI (9.02, 95% CI 5.79–14.07; p = 1X10-30) and FIB-4 (7.08, 95% CI 4.00–12.55; p = 1.93X10-11). In conclusion, TE performs best to diagnose recurrent fibrosis in LT recipients. APRI and FIB-4 can be used as an estimate of significant fibrosis at centres where TE is not available. Longitudinal assessment of fibrosis by means of these non-invasive tests may reduce the need for liver biopsy.
Whether and when recovery beyond the need for transplant may occur in patients listed for decompensation remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of patients delisted following recompensation. Seventy-seven patients who were listed between 2005 and 2015 for decompensation, but later delisted following recompensation were included. Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) was the underlying etiology in the majority (n = 47, 61%). Listing characteristics of these patients were compared with those of decompensated ALD patients who either underwent deceased donor liver transplantation or died on the waiting list. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score <20 and serum albumin ≥32 g/l at listing were the only independent predictors of recompensation/delisting in ALD. The probability of recompensation was 70% when both factors were present at listing. Interestingly, about a tenth of decompensated ALD patients who died on the waiting list (median duration on waiting list 11 months) and a quarter of decompensated ALD patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (median duration on waiting list 2 months) also had both factors at listing. In conclusion, ALD seems to be the most favorable etiology for recompensation beyond the need for transplantation. Both MELD and serum albumin at listing independently predict recompensation/delisting in ALD. It seems advisable to implement a period of observation for ALD patients with both favorable factors, before embarking on living donor liver transplantation.
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