Mixed-regime Andean basins present a complex scenario for flood analysis. In this study, we propose a methodology for incorporating orographic effects influenced by mountainous barriers in the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimation method in sparsely-gauged basins. The proposed methodology is applied to the Puclaro Reservoir basin in Chile, which is affected by the Andes. The PMP estimations were calculated by applying statistical and hydrometeorological approaches to the baseline and climate change scenarios determined from projections of the ECHAM5 general circulation model. Temperature projections for the 2040-2065 period show that there would be a rise in the catchment contributing area that would lead to an increase in the average liquid precipitation over the basin. Temperature projections would also affect the maximization factors in the calculation of the PMP, as precipitable water content, raising it to 126.6% and 62.5% under scenarios A2 and B1, respectively; the probable maximum flood (PMF) would increase to +175.5% under the A2 scenario. These projections would affect the safety of dam design and would be generalizable to zones with similar mixed hydrology and climate change projections. We propose that the methodology presented could be also applied to basins with similar characteristics.Key words PMP; PMF; orographic effect; climate change; floods Estimations des PMP et PMF dans des bassins andins peu jaugés et projections du changement climatiqueRésumé L'analyse des crues des bassins andins de régime mixte est un sujet complexe. Dans cette étude, nous proposons une méthodologie d'intégration des effets des barrières montagneuses dans la méthode d'estimation des précipitations maximales probables (PMP) dans des bassins peu jaugés. La méthodologie proposée a été appliquée au bassin du réservoir Puclaro au Chili, qui est influencé par les Andes. Les estimations des PMP ont été calculées en appliquant des approches statistiques et hydrométéorologiques aux observations instrumentales et aux scénarios de changement climatique (2045-2065) déterminés à partir de projections du modèle de circulation générale ECHAM5. Les températures prévues pour la période 2040-2065 montrent qu'il y aurait une augmentation de la zone d'alimentation qui conduirait à une augmentation des précipitations liquides moyennes sur le bassin. Les projections de températures affecteraient également les facteurs de maximisation dans le calcul de la PMP, comme la teneur en eau précipitable, l'augmentant respectivement de 126,6% et 62,5% selon les scénarios A2 et B1; la crue maximale probable (PMF) augmentant de 175,5% selon le scénario A2. Ces projections affecteraient la sécurité du barrage et seraient généralisables à des zones pour lesquelles le régime hydrologique mixte et les projections de changement climatique sont similaires. Nous proposons que la méthodologie présentée puisse également être appliquée à des bassins de caractéristiques similaires.
<p>In present paper we compare the reconstructed gridded seasonal precipitation (P) and temperature (T) for Europe [1,2] to the available station data from the GHCN [3,4] network going back to 1800. The basic statistical properties at various time-scales ranging from 1/4 to 30 years are examined. It is shown, that there are significant biases in the reconstructed P and T and the bias in mean and variability considerably vary over the time-scales. The same applies for considered drought indices. We further investigate how the simulation of hydrological model driven by reconstructed data compares to that based on station data and runoff from GRDC database. In addition, a set of data-driven methods is used to link the reconstructed and observed P and T data to observed runoff, the results are validated and a reconstruction back to 1500 is provided. Finally, we check to what extent the raw proxy data can be used for drought reconstruction.</p><p>[1] https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8<br>[2] https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877<br>[3] https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0094.1<br>[4] doi:10.7289/V5X34VDR</p>
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