PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Lagos-Zúñiga, Miguel; Vargas, M Ximena

doi:10.1080/02626667.2013.877588

Cited by 24 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Similarly, the moisture maximization approach based on dew point was used to estimate PMP values in Canada [e.g., CEHQ and SNC-Lavalin, 2003]. Recently, the moisture maximization method has been used and adapted to make use of climate model output to study climate change influence on PMP [Beauchamp et al, 2013;Lagos-Z uñiga and Vargas, 2014;Rousseau et al, 2014] and also on extreme hydrological state variables such as Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation [Klein et al, 2016].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output

Rouhani

Leconte

2016

Water Resources Research

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The moisture maximization approach has a simple technique for controlling the risk of overestimating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP): the maximization ratio is limited by an upper bound. The upper bound limit depends on storm records and watershed characteristics. However, it is not readily available in many watersheds. A robust scientific justification for limiting the maximization ratio is missing. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to estimate the maximization ratio which does not impose an upper limit. The new approach, which uses regional climate model data, is based on constructing annual maximum precipitable water time series with precipitable water values for which atmospheric variables are similar to the original event to be maximized. These time series are then used to estimate the 100 year return period of the precipitable water value required to calculate the ratio. The new approach was tested in three watersheds in the province of Québec, Canada. Results showed that maximization ratio values were lower than the proposed upper bound value for these watersheds. In comparison to the approach using an upper bound, the proposed approach reduced the PMPs in these watersheds by 11%.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output

Rouhani

Leconte

2016

Water Resources Research

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“…Barrier adjustment is required when there is a barrier or mountain range in the path of moisture being fed into the storm area. The details involving these two adjustments for the orographic effect can be found in the literatures of WMO (2009), Singh (2009), andLagos-Zúñiga andVargas M. (2014). The traditional PMP estimation using STM is as follows:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

Liu¹,

Yang²,

Kuo³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Typhoon Morakot hit southern Taiwan in 2009, bringing 48-hr of heavy rainfall [close to the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)] to the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. This extreme rainfall event resulted from the combined (co-movement) effect of two climate systems (i.e., typhoon and southwesterly air flow). Based on the traditional PMP estimation method (i.e., the storm transposition method, STM), two PMP estimation approaches, i.e., Amplification Index (AI) and Independent System (IS) approaches, which consider the combined effect are proposed in this work. The AI approach assumes that the southwesterly air flow precipitation in a typhoon event could reach its maximum value. The IS approach assumes that the typhoon and southwesterly air flow are independent weather systems. Based on these assumptions, calculation procedures for the two approaches were constructed for a case study on the Tsengwen Reservoir catchment. The results show that the PMP estimates for 6-to 60-hr durations using the two approaches are approximately 30% larger than the PMP estimates using the traditional STM without considering the combined effect. This work is a pioneer PMP estimation method that considers the combined effect of a typhoon and southwesterly air flow. Further studies on this issue are essential and encouraged.

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“…Engineers are frequently facing the difficult task of extreme flood estimations. In dam construction, for instance, a widely used concept for safety flood estimations is the probable maximum precipitation-probable maximum flood (PMP-PMF) approach (Swain et al 2006;Nathan et al 2001;Beauchamp et al 2013;Casas et al 2011;Jothityangkoon et al 2013;Lagos-Zúñiga and Vargas 2014;Salas et al 2014;Haddad and Rahman 2016;Brigode et al 2015;Zeimetz et al 2015;Zeimetz 2017). The PMP is, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO 2009), the " : : : theoretical maximum precipitation for a given duration under modern meteorological conditions : : : ."…”

Section: Introduction and Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Approach to Identifying Critical Initial Conditions for Extreme Flood Simulations in a Semicontinuous Simulation Framework

et al. 2018

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Extreme flood simulation with synthetic extreme precipitation events raises unavoidable questions about the choice of initial conditions. State-of-the-art extreme flood estimation frameworks propose to address these questions with the help of semicontinuous modeling and reanalysis of simulated state variables. In this context, the present work proposes a new method for the selection of initial conditions for extreme flood simulation. The method is based on generating sets of initial conditions from the matrix of state variables corresponding to a long simulation run of the selected hydrological model. Two sets of initial conditions are obtained: a deterministic set composed of selected state variable quantiles and a stochastic set composed of state variable vectors randomly drawn from the complete state variable matrix. The extreme flood simulations corresponding to both sets are compared in detail, and the stochastic simulations are used in a sensitivity analysis to identify the dominant state variables and possible interactions. The aim hereby is to provide a tool to analyze the role of initial conditions and the importance to account for state variable interactions in extreme flood estimation. The proposed method is applied to probable maximum flood estimation for the Swiss Mattmark Dam catchment with a semilumped hydrological model. The obtained results for this case study show that for high flood peak quantiles, the initial soil saturation is dominating other state variables, and deterministic initial conditions are sufficient to generate extreme floods.

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PMP and PMF estimations in sparsely-gauged Andean basins and climate change projections

Cited by 24 publications

References 31 publications

A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output

A novel method to estimate the maximization ratio of the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) using regional climate model output

Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation by Considering Combined Effect of Typhoon and Southwesterly Air Flow

New Approach to Identifying Critical Initial Conditions for Extreme Flood Simulations in a Semicontinuous Simulation Framework

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