Abstract. The early Eocene (56 to 48 million years ago) is inferred to have been the most recent time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Global mean temperatures were also substantially warmer than those of the present day. As such, the study of early Eocene climate provides insight into how a super-warm Earth system behaves and offers an opportunity to evaluate climate models under conditions of high greenhouse gas forcing. The Deep Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a systematic model–model and model–data intercomparison of three early Paleogene time slices: latest Paleocene, Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO). A previous article outlined the model experimental design for climate model simulations. In this article, we outline the methodologies to be used for the compilation and analysis of climate proxy data, primarily proxies for temperature and CO2. This paper establishes the protocols for a concerted and coordinated effort to compile the climate proxy records across a wide geographic range. The resulting climate “atlas” will be used to constrain and evaluate climate models for the three selected time intervals and provide insights into the mechanisms that control these warm climate states. We provide version 0.1 of this database, in anticipation that this will be expanded in subsequent publications.

The early Eocene "equable climate problem", i.e. warm extratropical annual mean and above-freezing winter temperatures evidenced by proxy records, has remained as one of the great unsolved problems in paleoclimate. Recent progress in modeling and in paleoclimate proxy development provides an opportunity to revisit this problem to ascertain if the current generation of models can reproduce the past climate features without extensive modification. Here we have compiled early Eocene terrestrial temperature data and compared with climate model results with a consistent and rigorous methodology. We test the hypothesis that equable climates can be explained simply as a response to increased greenhouse gas forcing within the framework of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (version 3), a climate model in common use for predicting future climate change. We find that, with suitably large radiative forcing, the model and data are in general agreement for annual mean and cold month mean temperatures, and that the pattern of high latitude amplification recorded by proxies can be reproduced

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project, and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and SST temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model-data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO₂, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO₂ level which would give optimal early Eocene model-data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO₂ level, is in the range 2000 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO₂ during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates, which could be used as a metric for weighting future climate predictions

As the world overheats—potentially to conditions warmer than during the three million years over which modern humans evolved—suffering from heat stress will become widespread. Fundamental questions about humans’ thermal tolerance limits are pressing. Understanding heat stress as a process requires linking a network of disciplines, from human health and evolutionary theory to planetary atmospheres and economic modeling. The practical implications of heat stress are equally transdisciplinary, requiring technological, engineering, social, and political decisions to be made in the coming century. Yet relative to the importance of the issue, many of heat stress's crucial aspects, including the relationship between its underlying atmospheric drivers—temperature, moisture, and radiation—remain poorly understood. This review focuses on moist heat stress, describing a theoretical and modeling framework that enables robust prediction of the averaged properties of moist heat stress extremes and their spatial distribution in the future, and draws some implications for human and natural systems from this framework. ▪  Moist heat stress affects society; we summarize drivers of moist heat stress and assess future impacts on societal and global scales. ▪  Moist heat stress pattern scaling of climate models allows research on future heat waves, infrastructure planning, and economic productivity.

The oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a crucial component of the climate system, impacting heat and nutrient transport, and global carbon cycling. Past greenhouse climate intervals present a paradox because their weak equator-to-pole temperature gradients imply a weaker MOC, yet increased poleward oceanic heat transport appears to be required to maintain these weak gradients. To investigate the mode of MOC that operated during the early Cenozoic, we compare new Nd isotope data with Nd tracer-enabled numerical ocean circulation and coupled climate model simulations. Assimilation of new Nd isotope data from South Pacific Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program Sites 323, 463, 596, 865, and 869 with previously published data confirm the hypothesized MOC characterized by vigorous sinking in the South and North Pacific~70 to 30 Ma. Compilation of all Pacific Nd isotope data indicates vigorous, distinct, and separate overturning circulations in each basin until~40 Ma. Simulations consistently reproduce South Pacific and North Pacific deep convection over a broad range of conditions, but cases using strong deep ocean vertical mixing produced the best data-model match. Strong mixing, potentially resulting from enhanced abyssal tidal dissipation, greater interaction of wind-driven internal wave activity with submarine plateaus, or higher than modern values of the geothermal heat flux enable models to achieve enhanced MOC circulation rates with resulting Nd isotope distributions consistent with the proxy data. The consequent poleward heat transport may resolve the paradox of warmer worlds with reduced temperature gradients.

The Indo‐Asian Monsoon (IAM) has changed as the topographies of Asia were assembled into their current configuration. Understanding complex interactions between topography and the IAM through time has been hampered, in part, by poorly resolved topography and atmospheric dynamics in climate models. Here, we employ high‐resolution (0.23° × 0.31°) global climate simulations, to more accurately capture these interactions. We find that the Himalayas and Tibet primarily redirect the onshore moisture transport and produce local orographic precipitation. The Iranian Plateau is the primary gatekeeper, insulating the pool of high‐enthalpy air in the Indo‐Gangetic Plain (IGP) from westerly low‐enthalpy advection. But, even when such high‐enthalpy air exists along the IGP, vigorous precipitation in the region (poleward of 25°N) still requires orographic steering and lifting. The large‐scale circulations—largely governed by sea surface temperature gradients—robustly advect water vapor onshore regardless of topography. Thus, neither topography nor localized enthalpy air drives onshore monsoon flow.

The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

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