No abstract

We described a spatio-temporal analysis of environmental loading models: atmospheric, continental hydrology, and non-tidal ocean changes, based on multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We extracted the common annual signal for 16 different sections related to climate zones: equatorial, arid, warm, snow, polar and continents. We used the loading models estimated for a set of 229 ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and discussed the amount of variance explained by individual modes, proving that the common annual signal accounts for 16, 24 and 68% of the total variance of non-tidal ocean, atmospheric and hydrological loading models, respectively. Having removed the common environmental MSSA seasonal curve from the corresponding GPS position time series, we found that the residual station-specific annual curve modelled with the least-squares estimation has the amplitude of maximum 2 mm. This means that the environmental loading models underestimate the seasonalities observed by the GPS system. The remaining signal present in the seasonal frequency band arises from the systematic errors which are not of common environmental or geophysical origin. Using common mode error (CME) estimates, we showed that the direct removal of environmental loading models from the GPS series causes an artificial loss in the CME power spectra between 10 and 80 cycles per year. When environmental effect is removed from GPS series with MSSA curves, no influence on the character of spectra of CME estimates was noticed.

We described a spatio-temporal analysis of environmental loading models: atmospheric, continental hydrology, and non-tidal ocean changes, based on multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). We extracted the common annual signal for 16 different sections related to climate zones: equatorial, arid, warm, snow, polar and continents. We used the loading models estimated for a set of 229 ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame) International GNSS Service (IGS) stations and discussed the amount of variance explained by individual modes, proving that the common annual signal accounts for 16, 24 and 68% of the total variance of non-tidal ocean, atmospheric and hydrological loading models, respectively. Having removed the common environmental MSSA seasonal curve from the corresponding GPS position time series, we found that the residual station-specific annual curve modelled with the least-squares estimation has the amplitude of maximum 2 mm. This means that the environmental loading models underestimate the seasonalities observed by the GPS system. The remaining signal present in the seasonal frequency band arises from the systematic errors which are not of common environmental or geophysical origin. Using common mode error (CME) estimates, we showed that the direct removal of environmental loading models from the GPS series causes an artificial loss in the CME power spectra between 10 and 80 cycles per year. When environmental effect is removed from GPS series with MSSA curves, no influence on the character of spectra of CME estimates was noticed.

We estimated the common seasonal signal (annual oscillation) included in the Global Positioning System (GPS) vertical position time series by using Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA). We employed time series from 24 International GNSS Service (IGS) stations located in Europe which contributed to the newest ITRF2014 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame). The MSSA method has an advantage over the traditional modelling of seasonal signals by the Least-Squares Estimation (LSE) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) approaches because it can extract time-varying and common seasonal oscillations for stations located in the considered area. Having estimated the annual curve with LSE, we may make a misfit of 3 mm when a peakto-peak variations of seasonal signals are to be estimated due to the time-variability of seasonal signal. A variance of data modelled as annual signal with SSA and MSSA differs of 3 % at average what proves that the MSSA-curves contain only time-varying and common seasonal signal and leave the station-specific part, local phenomena and power-law noise intact. In contrast to MSSA, these effects are modelled by SSA. The differences in spectral indices of power-law noise between MSSA and LSE estimated with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) are closer to zero than the ones between SSA and LSE, which means that MSSA curves do not contain site-specific noise as much as the SSA curves do. ARTICLE INFO

No abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The role of environmental factors in COVID-19 transmission is unclear. This study aimed to analyze the correlation between meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed) and dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Data on a daily number of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and the number of COVID-19-related deaths were gatheredfrom the official governmental website. Meteorological observations from 55 synoptic stations in Poland were used. Moreover, reports on the movement of people across different categories of places were collected. A cross-correlation function, principal component analysis and random forest were applied. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration, relative humidity and variability of mean daily temperature affected the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. An increase intemperature and sunshine hours decreased the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. The occurrence of high humidity caused an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases 14 days later. Decreased sunshine duration and increased air humidity had a negative impact on the number of COVID-19-related deaths. Our study provides information that may be used by policymakers to support the decision-making process in nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19.

No abstract

Data from epidemiological reports on the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland and meteorological parameters from 16 synoptic stations has been used to assess the impact of weather on the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in 16 administrative regions (voivodeships) of Poland. We can estimate that 10-12% of COVID-19 cases can be related to the weather events and its impact on the transmission of infectious diseases with a 10-14 days lag. In particular, relative humidity and the maximum daily temperature had the highest impact on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in each of the 16 voivodeships. The periods with significant weather impact were determined by means of a multiple linear regression model.