Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 BP to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers and pastoralists by 3,000 years ago, significantly earlier than land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by over 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked at 2000 BP and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth's transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.One Sentence Summary: A map of synthesized archaeological knowledge on land use reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers and pastoralists by 3,000 years ago.

Rationale Carbonised plant remains are analysed for reconstruction of past climates and agricultural regimes. Several recent studies have used C4 plants to address related questions, and correlations between modern C4 plant δ13C values and rainfall have been found. The millets were important food crops in prehistoric Eurasia, yet little is known about causes of isotopic variation within millet species. Previous research has shown there to be significant isotopic variation between millet accessions. Here we compare isotope ratios from plants grown under different watering regimes. This allows for a consideration of whether or not Setaria italica is a good proxy for environmental reconstruction. Methods We compare stable isotope ratios of Setaria italica plants grown in a controlled environment chamber with different watering regimes. We compare the carbon isotope ratios of leaves and grains, and the nitrogen isotope ratios of grains, from 12 accessions of Setaria italica. Results We find significant isotopic variability between watering regimes. Carbon isotope ratios are positively correlated with water availability, and on average vary by 1.9‰ and 1.7‰ for leaves and grains, respectively. Grain nitrogen isotope ratios also vary with watering regime; however, the highest isotope ratios are found with the 130‐mL watering regime. Conclusions The carbon isotope ratios of Setaria italica are strongly correlated with water availability. However, the correlation is the opposite to that seen in studies of C3 plants. The difference in isotopic ratio due to watering regime is comparable with that seen between different accessions; thus distinguishing between changing varieties of Setaria italica and changing climate is problematic. In terms of grain nitrogen isotope ratios, the highest δ15N values were not associated with the lowest watering regime. Again, δ15N variation is comparable with that which would be expected from an aridity effect or a manuring effect, and thus distinguishing between these factors is probably problematic.

The development, floruit and decline of the urban phase of the Indus Civilisation (c.2600/2500-1900 BC) provide an ideal opportunity to investigate social resilience and transformation in relation to a variable climate. The Indus Civilisation extended over most of the Indus River Basin, which includes a mix of diverse environments conditioned, among other factors, by partially overlapping patterns of winter and summer precipitation. These patterns likely changed towards the end of the urban phase (4.2 ka BP event), increasing aridity. The impact of this change appears to have varied at different cities and between urban and rural contexts. We present a simulation approach using agent-based modelling to address the potential diversity of agricultural strategies adopted by Indus settlements in different socio-ecological scenarios in Haryana, NW India. This is an ongoing initiative that consists of creating a modular model, Indus Village, that assesses the implications of trends in cropping strategies for the sustainability of settlements and the resilience of such strategies under different regimes of precipitation. The model aims to simulate rural settlements structured into farming households, with sub-models representing weather and land systems, food economy, demography, and land use. This model building is being carried out as part of the multi-disciplinary TwoRains project. It brings together research on material culture, settlement distribution, food production and consumption, vegetation and paleoenvironmental conditions.

The start and end of the urban phase of the Indus civilization (IC; c. 2500 to 1900 BC) are often linked with climate change, specifically regarding trends in the intensity of summer and winter precipitation and its effect on the productivity of local food economies. The Indus Village is a modular agent-based model designed as a heuristic “sandbox” to investigate how IC farmers could cope with diverse and changing environments and how climate change could impact the local and regional food production levels required for maintaining urban centers. The complete model includes dedicated submodels about weather, topography, soil properties, crop dynamics, food storage and exchange, nutrition, demography, and farming decision-making. In this paper, however, we focus on presenting the parts required for generating crop dynamics, including the submodels involved (weather, soil water, land, and crop models) and how they are combined progressively to form two integrated models (land water and land crop models). Furthermore, we describe and discuss the results of six simulation experiments, which highlight the roles of seasonality, topography, and crop diversity in understanding the potential impact of environmental variability, including climate change, in IC food economies. We conclude by discussing a broader consideration of risk and risk mitigation strategies in ancient agriculture and potential implications to the sustainability of the IC urban centres.

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