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To evaluate the effect of climate change on milk yield of Holstein cattle maintained in the Delta region of Egypt, meteorological data covering the period 2000-2014 were obtained from the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate. Data of test-day milk yield (TDMY) comprised 109759 records, were collected from four herds (5546 Holstein cows) covering the same period of meteorological data. The four herds represented different parts of the Delta region: west of the Delta (Dina farm, El-Behera governorate, H1 and H2), middle (El-Sharkia governorate, Sami Asaad farm, H3) and east of Delta (El-Karada farm, Kafr El-Sheikh governorate, H4). Daily management practices were almost comparable in the four studied herds, except for the housing systems.Preliminary analysis of meteorological data during the period (2012)(2013)(2014) revealed that the air temperature increased (P<0.05) by19.8%, during June-September, and by 3.1% for all the year round, relative to the period (2000 to 2011). Temperature humidity index (THI) showed a similar trend to air temperature, increased (P<0.05) by10.5%, during June-September, and by 2.3% for all the year round, during the same year periods. THI values were more than the minimum threshold of heat stress (≤74), throughout the June-September, while less than this threshold during the rest of the calendar year. TDMY decreased (P<0.05) when THI was >74. TDMY, also decreased (P<0.05) by 6.1% in the period from 2012-2014 compared to 2000-2011. It could be concluded that a marked change in the climate of the Delta region of Egypt expressed in the rise of THI values. This rise started the year 2011 up to 2014. This change negatively affects milk production as measured by TDMY.

The objectives of the present study were to develop a simplified equation to estimate temperature-humidity index (THI) under the Egyptian conditions and to assess the influence of expected climate change on test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in the Nile Delta of Egypt in the years 2025 and 2050. Data of air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) throughout the period from 2000 to 2014 and of their expected corresponding values in the two years 2025 and 2050 were provided by the Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC). Meteorological data between the years 2000 -2014 were used to detect if there was an ascending trend in THI of Nile Delta of Egypt throughout this period. Meteorological data of the years 2025 and 2050 were used to estimate the THI of these two years relative to the year 2000 as a benchmark. Using regression technique, a new accurate and simplified equation was developed to estimate THI. The equation accounted for 99.5% of the variance of THI. The developed equation was used to predict THI in the years 2025 and 2050. A total of 109759 test-day milk yield (TDMY) records for 5546 Holstein cows located in four herds was used to establish the effect of THI on TDMY of Holstein cattle in the Delta region.Meteorological data indicated a considerable increase in THI by 13.9 % (78.8) and 17.3% (81.2) for the years of 2025 and 2050, respectively, relative to the year 2000 (69.2). Analysis of TDMY indicated a significant decrease of 0.12 kg (1.2%) for each increase of one THI unit above 74 under the current managerial practices.The study concluded that proper and prompt breeding, feeding and system modifications should be considered to counteract the expected increase in THI by the years 2025 and 2050, to restore milk production of Holstein cattle in the Nile Delta of Egypt.

This study aimed at characterizing nutritional packages adoption by the small dairy farmers under crop-livestock production system. The study is based on quantitative and qualitative statistical analysis. A cross-sectional random survey covered a total of 200 farmers located in 4 governorates Sharqia, Monufia, El-Fayoum, and Minya (50 each). The socioeconomic analysis indicated that the illiteracy level was higher (42%) in Minya governorate as compared to others. about half of the households (49%) have been working full time in their farms as farmer this means that they earn their living from agriculture. Family labor represented the highest percentage being 88%, 92%, 80%, and 86% for Sharqia, Monufia, El-Fayoum, and Minya respectively. The results further indicated that farmers who used silage, hay, and green forages, have the highest animal numbers, either from indigenous cows, crossbred cows, buffaloes, sheep, goat, and donkey compared to those who do not use the nutritional packages (non-adopters). The highest percentage of dairy, heifer, fattening, and growing for crossbred cows and buffaloes was detected under silage, hay, and untraditional green forages adopters comparable to those detected under non-adopters. Sharqia governorate had the highest number and consequently percentage of animals followed by El-Fayoum governorate. Silage adopters recorded the highest significant (P<0.05) value of daily milk yield (DMY) and total milk yield (TMY) for indigenous cow, crossbred cow and buffalo as compared to non-adopters. Calving interval significantly (P<0.05) increased for all dairy animals (indigenous cows, crossbred cows, and buffaloes) under non-adopters of nutritional packages being 387, 388.57, and 402 days for the aforementioned animals, respectively. Dairy animals reared under the Nile Delta had the highest significant DMY versus those under the Middle Egypt, where it was 4.05, 8.52, and 7.29 kg vs 3.76, 7.74, and 6.48 kg per day for indigenous cows, crossbred cows, and buffaloes, respectively. In conclusion, adopters of nutritional packages had the highest animal percent and recorded the highest productivity compared to non-adopters.