Understanding the causes of recent catastrophic ice shelf disintegrations is a crucial step towards improving coupled models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and predicting its future state and contribution to sea-level rise. An overlooked climate-related causal factor is regional sea ice loss. Here we show that for the disintegration events observed (the collapse of the Larsen A and B and Wilkins ice shelves), the increased seasonal absence of a protective sea ice buffer enabled increased flexure of vulnerable outer ice shelf margins by ocean swells that probably weakened them to the point of calving. This outer-margin calving triggered wider-scale disintegration of ice shelves compromised by multiple factors in preceding years, with key prerequisites being extensive flooding and outer-margin fracturing. Wave-induced flexure is particularly effective in outermost ice shelf regions thinned by bottom crevassing. Our analysis of satellite and ocean-wave data and modelling of combined ice shelf, sea ice and wave properties highlights the need for ice sheet models to account for sea ice and ocean waves.

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Key Points:• Long waves attenuate with distance traveled in proportion to the inverse of wave period squared • Significant wave height attenuates with distance traveled into the MIZ • Peak periods increase with distance traveled into the MIZ Abstract In situ measurements of ocean surface wave spectra evolution in the Antarctic marginal ice zone are described. Analysis of the measurements shows significant wave heights and peak periods do not vary appreciably in approximately the first 80 km of the ice-covered ocean. Beyond this region, significant wave heights attenuate and peak periods increase. It is shown that attenuation rates are insensitive to amplitudes for long-period waves but increase with increasing amplitude above some critical amplitude for short-period waves. Attenuation rates of the spectral components of the wavefield are calculated. It is shown that attenuation rates decrease with increasing wave period. Further, for long-period waves the decrease is shown to be proportional to the inverse of the period squared. This relationship can be used to efficiently implement wave attenuation through the marginal ice zone in ocean-scale wave models.

Analysis of field measurements of ocean surface wave activity in the marginal ice zone, from campaigns in the Arctic and Antarctic and over a range of different ice conditions, shows the wave attenuation rate with respect to distance has a power law dependence on the frequency with order between two and four. With this backdrop, the attenuation‐frequency power law dependencies given by three dispersion relation models are obtained under the assumptions of weak attenuation, negligible deviation of the wave number from the open water wave number, and thin ice. It is found that two of the models (both implemented in WAVEWATCH III®), predict attenuation rates that are far more sensitive to frequency than indicated by the measurements. An alternative method is proposed to derive dispersion relation models, based on energy loss mechanisms. The method is used to generate example models that predict power law dependencies that are comparable with the field measurements.

Antarctic sea ice shows a large degree of regional variability, which is partly driven by severe weather events. Here we bring a new perspective on synoptic sea ice changes by presenting the first in situ observations of an explosive extratropical cyclone crossing the winter Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) in the South Atlantic. This is complemented by the analysis of subsequent cyclones and highlights the rapid variations that ice‐landing cyclones cause on sea ice: Midlatitude warm oceanic air is advected onto the ice, and storm waves generated close to the ice edge contribute to the maintenance of an unconsolidated surface through which waves propagate far into the ice. MIZ features may thus extend further poleward in the Southern Ocean than currently estimated. A concentration‐based MIZ definition is inadequate, since it fails to describe a sea ice configuration which is deeply rearranged by synoptic weather.

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A theoretical model is used to study wave energy attenuation and directional spreading of ocean wave spectra in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The MIZ is constructed as an array of tens of thousands of compliant circular ice floes, with randomly selected positions and radii determined by an empirical floe size distribution. Linear potential flow and thin elastic plate theories model the coupled water-ice system. A new method is proposed to solve the time-harmonic multiple scattering problem under a multi-directional incident wave forcing with random phases. It provides a natural framework for tracking the evolution of the directional properties of a wave field through the MIZ. The attenuation and directional spreading are extracted from ensembles of the wave field with respect to realizations of the MIZ and incident forcing randomly generated from prescribed distributions. The averaging procedure is shown to converge rapidly so that only a small number of simulations need to be performed. Far field approximations are investigated, allowing efficiency improvements with negligible loss of accuracy. A case study is conducted for a particular MIZ configuration. Observed exponential attenuation of wave energy through the MIZ is reproduced by the model, while the directional spread is found to grow linearly with distance. Directional spreading is shown to weaken when the wavelength becomes larger than the maximum floe size.

The problem of linear wave scattering by an ice sheet of variable thickness floating on water of variable quiescent depth is considered by applying the Rayleigh–Ritz method in conjunction with a variational principle. By using a multi-mode expansion to approximate the velocity potential that represents the fluid motion, Porter & Porter (J. Fluid Mech. vol. 509, 2004, p. 145) is extended and the solution of the problem may be obtained to any desired accuracy. Explicit solution methods are formulated for waves that are obliquely incident on two-dimensional geometry, comparisons are made with existing work and a range of new examples that includes both total and partial ice-cover is considered.