This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy on inequality over the business cycle via its impacts on returns on assets, the cost of debt servicing, and asset prices in selected advanced economies. Monetary policy easing has a priori ambiguous effects on income and net wealth inequality via financial channels. Effects depend in a complex way on the relative size and distributions of assets, liabilities, and income. In practice, these effects are estimated to be small. A house price increase generally reduces net wealth inequality, while the opposite is true for increases in stock and bond prices. As monetary policy has the potential to affect inequality, monetary authorities face communication challenges. The available research on interactions between monetary policy and inequality does not justify targeting inequality by central banks.
In many OECD countries debt has soared to levels threatening fiscal sustainability, necessitating its reduction over the medium to longer term. This paper proposes a stylised model, featuring endogenous interactions between fiscal policy, growth and financial markets, to highlight how economic shocks and structural features of an economy can affect consolidation strategy and resulting growth and inflation developments. The fiscal authorities are assumed to choose a consolidation path from a predetermined set of possible paths by maximising cumulative GDP growth and minimising cumulative squared output gaps, with the objective to reach a given debtto-GDP level within a finite horizon and stabilise debt afterwards under the assumption of the unchanged fiscal policy stance. Illustrative simulations for a hypothetical economy show, among other things, that by requiring debt to stabilise part of the initial adjustment can be reversed; some stepping up of the fiscal adjustment can be optimal if bond yields increase due to an exogenous shock; and for some debt reduction targets, high fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects and higher government bond yields imply protracted deflation and large negative output gaps, stressing the need to select reasonable fiscal targets consistent with market conditions. JEL classification: E61, E62, H6
Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Économiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 24-Sep-2012 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ English -Or. English ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT CHOOSING THE PACE OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 992
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