Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations

Dąbrowski, Marek; Paczynski, Wojciech; Rawdanowicz, Łukasz

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1440285

Cited by 16 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Overall, the estimation results suggest that a simple December and January, as the Russian money supply shows seasonal spikes during these months. According to Dabrowski et al (2002) this effect is probably attributable to technical and accounting measures. As the regression results indicate (see Table 2, second column), in general a modified McCallum rule performs much better in explaining the behavior of the Bank of Russia than simple interest rate based rules.…”

Section: Results For the Taylor Rulementioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy Rules for Russia

2004

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Monetary Policy Rules for Russia B a n k o f F i n l a n d BOFIT -I n s t i t u t e f o r E c o n o m i e s i n T r a n s i t i o n Terms of use: Documents in BOFIT

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Section: Results For the Taylor Rulementioning

confidence: 99%

Monetary Policy Rules for Russia

2004

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“…Moreover, in the crisis the businesses with a considerable innovation output gained a certain advantage because of innovative products being in growing demand [3]. One upside to the crisis is that it has opened up opportunities to businesses of a certain size.…”

Section: Results Of Anti-crisis Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aftermath of the Financial Crisis in Russia

Yandiev

2009

SSRN Journal

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“…The share of imports in GDP fell from 26% in 1999 to 21.5% in 2005. Dabrowski et al (2002) argues that the weakening of the pass-through was especially strong for food prices, as the share of imported foodstuffs in the consumer basket fell significantly. It is also possible that foreign exporters might be increasingly inclined to price-to-market.…”

Section: Box 2 Balassa-samuelson Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The shift out of the dollar stalled in early 2004 and was temporarily reversed as a result of the banking "mini-crisis" in the late spring of that year, which contributed to a slowdown in rouble credit growth. 35 The dynamics of dollarisation thus help to explain changes in rouble velocity, 36 which stabilised in 2004 after having fallen sharply in 2003, but they add to the difficulty of establishing, in the short run, a clear empirical link between inflation and monetary factors (Dabrowski et al, 2002). In 2004, fiscal tightening also helped restrain inflation (see below).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Empirical studies show that the exchange rate pass-through into prices is relatively weak, and may even have attenuated somewhat in the recent past. 46 On the basis of estimates covering the post-crisis period, Dabrowski et al (2002) find that a nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of the order of 10% would reduce inflation by 3.0-3.5 percentage points. 47 CBR estimates point to a much lower elasticity over the most recent period (from 0.1 to 0.2).…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade

Gianella¹

2007

OECD Economics Department Working Papers

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The Russian economy continues to grow strongly, buoyed by rising terms of trade, which, in turn, are supporting a boom in domestic consumption. This paper addresses the challenge that the adjustment to sustained high oil prices poses for macroeconomic management. It first examines the impact of rising terms of trade on the domestic economy, particularly with respect to exchange-rate appreciation, competitiveness and inflation. It then considers the role of monetary and fiscal policies in ensuring a smooth adjustment to the higher terms of trade. The paper argues that fiscal policy should be the primary instrument for tackling this challenge. It therefore focuses on the potential role of a fiscal rule in insulating the economy and the budget from commodity-price fluctuations, and on the management of windfall oil and gas revenues accumulated in the fiscal Stabilisation Fund. Une règle d'or pour la Russie? Comment une politique budgétaire fondée sur des règles peut permettre un ajustement en douceur aux nouveaux termes de l'échange. L’économie russe continue de croître à un rythme élevé, bénéficiant d’une amélioration prolongée des termes de l’échange qui alimente la forte hausse de la consommation intérieure. Cette étude analyse le défi que l’adaptation à des prix du pétrole durablement élevés suscite en termes de gestion macroéconomique. Il examine d’abord les conséquences de l’augmentation des termes de l’échange sur l’économie nationale, en particulier son impact sur l’appréciation du taux de change, la compétitivité et l’inflation. Il analyse ensuite le rôle que les politiques monétaire et budgétaire peuvent jouer pour garantir un ajustement en douceur à cette augmentation des termes de l’échange. Le chapitre conclut que la politique budgétaire devrait être l’instrument à privilégier pour réaliser cet ajustement. Enfin, l’étude considère le rôle que peuvent potentiellement jouer des règles budgétaires pour mettre l’économie et le budget à l’abri des fluctuations des prix des matières premières, et se concentre sur la gestion des recettes pétrolières et gazières exceptionnelles transférées dans le Fonds de stabilisation.monetary policy, Russia, macroeconomic management, fiscal policy, dutch disease, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, gestion macroéconomique, syndrome néerlandais, Russie

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Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations

Cited by 16 publications

References 22 publications

Monetary Policy Rules for Russia

Monetary Policy Rules for Russia

Aftermath of the Financial Crisis in Russia

A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade

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