RESUMO Este artigo discute o papel que a moeda representa nas relações de poder dos Estados em relação aos agentes privados, bem como em relação aos seus pares no sistema internacional, a partir do caso da moeda digital chinesa. A análise do “e-Renminbi” parte do entendimento de que os Estados são a unidade básica do sistema internacional, de que eles disputam poder entre si e de que suas moedas são simultaneamente uma manifestação e uma fonte de poder. Esta pesquisa argumenta que as evidências existentes não autorizam qualquer diagnóstico definitivo de que o “e-Renminbi” representará uma ruptura iminente no sistema monetário e financeiro internacional centrado no dólar.
The 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) eroded the consensus around the benefits of capital mobility within mainstream economics. Against this background, this paper discusses to what extent the new mainstream position on capital flow management measures, based on the New Welfare Economics, expands the policy space of developing and emerging economies (DEEs). This paper argues that the new position can be classified as an embedded neoliberal one, given that it keeps liberalization as its ultimate goal, while nonetheless accepting to mitigate some of its harmful consequences. After comparing the capital account policies of China and Brazil, this paper concludes that the policy prescriptions of the New Welfare Economics do not lead to higher levels of national autonomy for DEEs and are likewise unable to curb financial instability in these countries.
This article investigates the existence of a link between financial cycles and fiscal cycles, and discusses possible policy implications for developing and emerging economies (DEEs). It empirically analyses the impact of financial cycle shocks on the short-term dynamics of Brazil’s fiscal policy by estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the period 1997–2018. The results indicate that financial cycles have pro-cyclical effects on the fiscal policy. This suggests that a fiscal policy should consider not only the cyclical behaviour of the output, but also its role in minimising financial factors. By explicitly linking Brazil’s fiscal performance with Brazil’s higher vulnerability to the financial cycle, this article adds to the literature that strives to understand the policy implications of the financialisation process in DEEs. It also contributes to the more general empirical literature on DEEs’ fiscal dynamics.
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