The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit reassessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution -understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification -frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future.

The most rapid species radiations have been reported from 'evolutionary laboratories', such as the Andes and the Cape of South Africa, leading to the prevailing view that diversification elsewhere has not been as dramatic. However, few studies have explicitly assessed rates of diversification in northern regions such as Europe. Here, we show that carnations (Dianthus, Caryophyllaceae), a well-known group of plants from temperate Eurasia, have diversified at the most rapid rate ever reported in plants or terrestrial vertebrates. Using phylogenetic methods, we found that the majority of species of carnations belong to a lineage that is remarkably species-rich in Europe, and arose at the rate of 2.2 -7.6 species per million years. Unlike most previous studies that have inferred rates of diversification in young diverse groups, we use a conservative approach throughout that explicitly incorporates the uncertainties associated with phylogenetic inference, molecular dating and incomplete taxon sampling. We detected a shift in diversification rates of carnations coinciding with a period of increase in climatic aridity in the Pleistocene, suggesting a link between climate and biodiversity. This explosive radiation suggests that Europe, the continent with the world's best-studied flora, has been underestimated as a cradle of recent and rapid speciation.

Guenons (tribe Cercopithecini) are one of the most diverse groups of primates. They occupy all of sub-Saharan Africa and show great variation in ecology, behavior, and morphology. This variation led to the description of over 60 species and subspecies. Here, using next-generation DNA sequencing (NGS) in combination with targeted DNA capture, we sequenced 92 mitochondrial genomes from museum-preserved specimens as old as 117 years. We infer evolutionary relationships and estimate divergence times of almost all guenon taxa based on mitochondrial genome sequences. Using this phylogenetic framework, we infer divergence dates and reconstruct ancestral geographic ranges. We conclude that the extraordinary radiation of guenons has been a complex process driven by, among other factors, localized fluctuations of African forest cover. We find incongruences between phylogenetic trees reconstructed from mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences, which can be explained by either incomplete lineage sorting or hybridization. Furthermore, having produced the largest mitochondrial DNA data set from museum specimens, we document how NGS technologies can “unlock” museum collections, thereby helping to unravel the tree-of-life. [Museum collection; next-generation DNA sequencing; primate radiation; speciation; target capture.]

Aims The 50th anniversary of the publication of the seminal book, The Theory of Island Biogeography, by Robert H. MacArthur and Edward O. Wilson, is a timely moment to review and identify key research foci that could advance island biology. Here, we take a collaborative horizon‐scanning approach to identify 50 fundamental questions for the continued development of the field. Location Worldwide. Methods We adapted a well‐established methodology of horizon scanning to identify priority research questions in island biology, and initiated it during the Island Biology 2016 conference held in the Azores. A multidisciplinary working group prepared an initial pool of 187 questions. A series of online surveys was then used to refine a list of the 50 top priority questions. The final shortlist was restricted to questions with a broad conceptual scope, and which should be answerable through achievable research approaches. Results Questions were structured around four broad and partially overlapping island topics, including: (Macro)Ecology and Biogeography, (Macro)Evolution, Community Ecology, and Conservation and Management. These topics were then subdivided according to the following subject areas: global diversity patterns (five questions in total); island ontogeny and past climate change (4); island rules and syndromes (3); island biogeography theory (4); immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics (5); speciation and diversification (4); dispersal and colonization (3); community assembly (6); biotic interactions (2); global change (5); conservation and management policies (5); and invasive alien species (4). Main conclusions Collectively, this cross‐disciplinary set of topics covering the 50 fundamental questions has the potential to stimulate and guide future research in island biology. By covering fields ranging from biogeography, community ecology and evolution to global change, this horizon scan may help to foster the formation of interdisciplinary research networks, enhancing joint efforts to better understand the past, present and future of island biotas.

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Island biotas emerge from the interplay between colonisation, speciation and extinction and are often the scene of spectacular adaptive radiations. A common assumption is that insular diversity is at a dynamic equilibrium, but for remote islands, such as Hawaii or Galápagos, this idea remains untested. Here, we reconstruct the temporal accumulation of terrestrial bird species of the Galápagos using a novel phylogenetic method that estimates rates of biota assembly for an entire community. We show that species richness on the archipelago is in an ascending phase and does not tend towards equilibrium. The majority of the avifauna diversifies at a slow rate, without detectable ecological limits. However, Darwin's finches form an exception: they rapidly reach a carrying capacity and subsequently follow a coalescent‐like diversification process. Together, these results suggest that avian diversity of remote islands is rising, and challenge the mutual exclusivity of the non‐equilibrium and equilibrium ecological paradigms.

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) has added a new dimension to theoretical island biogeography in recognizing that geological processes are key drivers of the evolutionary processes of diversification and extinction within remote islands. It provides a dynamic and essentially non-equilibrium framework generating novel predictions for emergent diversity properties of oceanic islands and archipelagos. Its publication in 2008 coincided with, and spurred on, renewed attention to the dynamics of remote islands. We review progress, both in testing the GDM's predictions and in developing and enhancing ecological-evolutionary understanding of oceanic island systems through the lens of the GDM. In particular, we focus on four main themes: (i) macroecological tests using a space-for-time rationale; (ii) extensions of theory to islands following different patterns of ontogeny; (iii) the implications of GDM dynamics for lineage diversification and trait evolution; and (iv) the potential for downscaling GDM dynamics to local-scale ecological patterns and processes within islands. We also consider the implications of the GDM for understanding patterns of non-native species diversity. We demonstrate the vitality of the field of island biogeography by identifying a range of potentially productive lines for future research.

The Cape region of South Africa is a hotspot of flowering plant biodiversity. However, the reasons why levels of diversity and endemism are so high remain obscure. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among species in the genus Protea, which has its center of species richness and endemism in the Cape, but also extends through tropical Africa as far as Eritrea and Angola. Contrary to previous views, the Cape is identified as the ancestral area for the radiation of the extant lineages: most species in subtropical and tropical Africa are derived from a single invasion of that region. Moreover, diversification rates have been similar within and outside the Cape region. Migration out of the Cape has opened up vast areas, but those lineages have not diversified as extensively at fine spatial scales as lineages in the Cape. Therefore, higher net rates of diversification do not explain the high diversity and endemism of Protea in the Cape. Instead, understanding why the Cape is so diverse requires an explanation for how Cape species are able to diverge and persist at such small spatial scales.