SUMMARYThe weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho=0.28, P=0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho=-0.43, P=0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

Abstract. During 2010 and 2011, the Loreto region of Peru experienced a dengue outbreak of unprecedented magnitude and severity for the region. This outbreak coincided with the reappearance of dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) in Loreto after almost 8 years. Whole-genome sequence indicated that DENV-2 from the outbreak belonged to lineage II of the southeast Asian/American genotype and was most closely related to viruses circulating in Brazil during 2007 and 2008, whereas DENV-2 previously circulating in Loreto grouped with lineage I (DENV-2 strains circulating in South America since 1990). One amino acid substitution (NS5 A811V) in the 2010 and 2011 isolates resulted from positive selection. However, the 2010 and 2011 DENV-2 did not replicate to higher titers in monocyte-derived dendritic cells and did not infect or disseminate in a higher proportion of Aedes aegypti than DENV-2 isolates previously circulating in Loreto. These results suggest that factors other than enhanced viral replication played a role in the severity of this outbreak.

Alternatives to convenience sampling (CS) are needed for HIV/STI surveillance of most-at-risk populations in Latin America. We compared CS, time space sampling (TSS), and respondent driven sampling (RDS) for recruitment of men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) in Lima, Peru. During concurrent 60-day periods from June–August, 2011, we recruited MSM/TW for epidemiologic surveillance using CS, TSS, and RDS. A total of 748 participants were recruited through CS, 233 through TSS, and 127 through RDS. The TSS sample included the largest proportion of TW (30.7 %) and the lowest percentage of subjects who had previously participated in HIV/STI research (14.9 %). The prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV infection, according to participants’ self-reported previous HIV diagnosis, was highest among TSS recruits (17.9 %) compared with RDS (12.6 %) and CS (10.2 %). TSS identified diverse populations of MSM/TW with higher prevalences of HIV/STIs not accessed by other methods.

Hepatitis B was found to be hyperendemic and strongly related to sexual factors, suggesting an important sexual component in the transmission of the disease in the populations studied. Syphilis was found to have an endemicity in pregnant women above the national level and this may be indicative of high mother-to-child transmission. HIV has started to show its presence in indigenous populations of the Amazon Basin and the results suggest the epidemic is concentrated.